Core recommendation
Key points of basic chemical industry
Core assets ( Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) ); The titanium dioxide ( Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 002is the date of the 3535 \ ) etc.
Key points of petrochemical industry
OPEC + joint production reduction forms the bottom support of oil price, but we still need to pay attention to the impact of non OPEC production (Canadian heavy oil, Brazil and Central Asia), global macroeconomic downside risk and further fermentation of trade risk on oil price. It is recommended to accelerate the integrated construction of polyester industrial chain and enter into large-scale refining and excellent private refining enterprises with C2 / C3 light hydrocarbon cracking ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , satellite chemistry, Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ); Pay attention to Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) .
Weekly industry update
This week, the price index of chemical products rose, the oil price of core raw materials fell, LPG gas fell, LNG gas remained flat and coal price fell; C5. The prices of some chemical fertilizers and amino acids increased.
This week, China’s chemical price index CCPI + 0.8%; The price of core raw materials is – 3.6%, imported LPG – 10.3%, domestic LNG gas is flat, and bituminous coal is – 0.8%.
On the raw material side, the prices of some products of C5 rose, while the prices of some products of C3 and aromatics fell; On the product side, the prices of some chemical fertilizers and amino acids rose, while the prices of some plastic products fell.
Oil prices fell this week, the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine reached a deadlock again, and the impact of the epidemic on demand is limited.
This week, the settlement price of oil distribution fell from 104.4 to US $100.6/barrel (down 3.6%), and the settlement price of us oil fell from 99.3 to US $96.0/barrel (down 3.3%); The US commercial crude oil inventory was 412 million barrels (mom + 0.6%), and the number of US crude oil drilling wells was 546 (mom + 2.4%).
On the supply side, according to Longzhong information, although the International Energy Agency plans to release 180 million barrels of strategic reserves, the Russian Ukrainian negotiations have recently reached an impasse again, Ukraine’s attitude has turned tough, and the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue have not yet reached an end. On the demand side, according to Longzhong information, Saudi Arabia recently raised the official price of crude oil sold to Asia, reflecting that the restriction of the epidemic on demand is not obvious. In terms of policy, according to Longzhong information, the Federal Reserve has started the interest rate increase cycle, which is good for the US dollar and bad for oil prices in the long term, but the impact effect is limited in the short term. Geopolitically, according to Longzhong information, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is still the focus of attention, and the smooth progress of the negotiations directly affects the market sentiment.
Natural gas price tracking:
Price tracking: European and American natural gas futures rose and fell this week, with NBP – 15.47%, TTF – 12.65%, HH + 7.49% and AECO + 21.73%. In terms of spot, HH spot was + 12.03% month on month; Canada AECO spot chain was + 13.95%, and Europe TTF spot chain was – 2.46%. In terms of price difference, the average spot arrival price of LNG in Northeast Asia was 10569 yuan / ton, with a chain comparison of – 6.04%, and the average sales price at the terminal was 8280 yuan / ton, with a chain comparison of – 61 yuan / ton (- 0.73%).
Inventory tracking: according to EIA data this week, as of April 1, the US natural gas inventory was 1382 billion cubic feet, with a month on month ratio of – 33 billion cubic feet (month on month ratio of – 2.33%, year-on-year ratio of – 22.40%), lower than the five-year average. According to the data of the European Natural Gas Infrastructure Association, as of April 1, the European natural gas inventory was 983277 billion cubic feet, a month on month increase of + 2 billion cubic feet (a month on month increase of + 0.20%, a year-on-year increase of – 10.55%). China price: China’s LNG fell slightly this week. As of April 7, the average price of LNG in main producing areas was 7391 yuan / ton, down from – 2.12% last week; The prices of consumer places went down synchronously. As of April 7, the average price of major LNG consumer places was about 8077 yuan / ton, down – 1.24% from last week. The quotation of LNG terminal is 8786 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 0.60%.
View update of key chemicals:
Price rise and fall of chemicals:
The important products with the highest price increase this week are liquid chlorine + 57%, caustic soda (32% ionic membrane) + 16%, ammonium chloride + 10%, MMA + 9%, tetrachloroethylene + 8%, hexanediamine + 8%. The important products with the highest price decline this week are o-nitrochlorobenzene-14%, ammonium sulfate-9%, dichloromethane-9%, 2,4d-8%, dmf-7%, etc.
Price rise and fall of upstream chemicals of new energy:
Chemicals related to photovoltaic industry chain: industrial silicon – 3%, trichlorosilane, soda ash (light and heavy), vinyl acetate, EVA (photovoltaic grade) + 6%.
Chemical products related to lithium battery industry chain: phosphate rock (30%) is the same, phosphoric acid is the same, lithium carbonate (industrial grade is the same, battery grade is the same), iron phosphate + 2%, industrial monoammonium phosphate (73%) is the same, lithium hexafluorophosphate – 5%, etc.
Demand and procurement were stable, local supply decreased, and the price of liquid chlorine hit the bottom and rebounded.
Liquid chlorine (Shandong) rose 57.1% to 1100 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, some propylene oxide manufacturers in Binzhou temporarily do not purchase during the holiday, the export volume of enterprises in Luxi No. 1 zone increases, the liquid chlorine shipment of mainstream chlor alkali enterprises in Liaocheng area is smooth, the demand for chlorinated paraffin, chloroacetic acid and glycine in the downstream of Hebei area is general, the demand for chlorinated paraffin in the downstream of central China and Henan area is general, and the demand for titanium dioxide is acceptable; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, at present, the load of chlor alkali enterprises in Shandong Province is not high, and the supply is significantly reduced. Some chlor alkali enterprises in Hebei are dissatisfied with the load, and the transportation of dangerous chemicals in Shanxi is limited during the holiday. The manufacturers have taken measures to reduce the load in order to avoid expanding the warehouse. During the Qingming Festival in Central China and Henan, the transportation of liquid chlorine is blocked, some enterprises reduce the load, and the enterprises in Hubei are under started, The construction of self use and pipeline transmission households in Hunan is normal. During the holidays in East China and Jiangsu, there are enterprises to reduce the load for maintenance. The local supply is tight. Some enterprises in Southwest Sichuan began to stop for maintenance this week, and the export volume decreased.
The downstream demand is good, there are many maintenance devices, and the price of caustic soda rises.
Caustic soda (32% ion-exchange membrane, North China) rose 15.6% to 1300 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current downstream alumina receiving mood is positive, the demand of new alumina enterprises in Hebei is good, the downstream alumina inventory level in Central China is not high, and the receiving enthusiasm is good; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, there are more maintenance devices this week than last week. Some enterprises in Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu and Sichuan have maintenance, and the public safety and health control in Liaoning is strict. Some enterprises have stopped their devices. On the whole, the output is expected to decrease slightly, forming a favorable supply side.
The downstream compound fertilizer took goods actively and the supply continued to be tight, pushing up the price of ammonium chloride.
Ammonium chloride (Nongshi, Jiangsu Huachang) rose 10.2% to 1300 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, there is still a certain demand space in the downstream compound fertilizer market, with high enthusiasm for taking goods, forming a favorable situation; Most enterprises in East China mainly receive orders in advance, and most enterprises in East China are in short-term supply, while those in other regions are in short-term supply, while those in East China are in short supply, while those in other regions are basically in short supply.
The downstream maintains rigid demand, the supply is reduced, and the MMA price rises.
MMA (East China) rose 8.8% to 14250 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, at present, downstream enterprises mainly maintain rigid demand, and the substantive improvement of the terminal is limited; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, in the current shutdown and overhaul of Dawei Shengrong 20000 t / a MMA plant in Dongying, Shandong, other Chinese production enterprises have reduced the load operation, and the reduction of the supply side is good.
Liquid chlorine supported the cost, domestic and foreign trade increased steadily, and the price of tetrachloroethylene increased.
Vinyl chloride (East China) rose 8.3% to 13000 yuan / ton on Thursday. On the cost side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, liquid chlorine (Shandong) rose 57.1% to 1100 yuan / ton this week, forming a strong cost support; On the demand side, according to Yingfu of Baichuan, the current domestic and foreign trade has improved steadily, and the downstream order inquiry volume has increased, forming a favorable situation; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, at present, the start-up of various manufacturers has basically resumed, and the production plan has been adjusted as needed. This week, the start-up of some enterprises in East China has been maintained at about 8-90%, and that of some enterprises in Northwest and southwest China has been maintained at about 7-80%.
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuations, lower downstream demand than expected, etc
