This week’s market
This week (22.4.4-22.4.8), the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, gem index and media board index fell by 0.9%, 2.2%, 3.6% and 4.1% respectively.
Stocks in the sector rose for the first three ST youjiu (15.7%), Qtone Education Group(Guangdong) Co.Ltd(300359) (9.1%), Lander Sports Development Co.Ltd(000558) (9.1%), and the last three Hengxin Shambala Culture Co.Ltd(300081) (- 22.2%), Hubei Radio & Television Information Network Co.Ltd(000665) (- 17.2%) and Shunya International Martech (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300612) (- 15.9%).
Stocks in the overseas media sector rose this week, with China youzan (15.9%), Meitu (9.4%), bubble Mart (7.1%), straw bear Entertainment (- 11.1%), Didi travel (- 10.6%) and Alibaba (- 9.4%).
This week’s view
According to the data of China News Network and lighthouse professional edition, when the business proportion of cinemas in China is less than 50%, the total box office of Qingming (4.3-4.5) in 2022 is only 120 million yuan, with 3.42 million film viewers and 627900 total audience times. Previously, the Qingming Festival was highly valued by the industry. At one time, there were as many as 11 new films at home and abroad. However, affected by this round of epidemic, many popular domestic new films such as life events, detective war and you are my spring finally chose to be temporarily withdrawn. There are only two new overseas films “spirit Hotel 4: turning into a big adventure” and “escape from the secret room 2”, as well as introduced blockbusters such as “moon falling”, “new Batman” and “mysterious sea” released earlier, as well as the domestic police and bandit film “marginal Walker” released in advance. We believe that the poor performance of Qingming file is objectively affected by the epidemic. The reason behind it reflects that the film and television industry is currently facing the dilemma of insufficient supply of high-quality content and the continuous increase of film ticket prices, resulting in the decline of film viewing willingness. Media is an industry in which content supply determines demand. Compared with the box office per capita in North America, China Film Co.Ltd(600977) box office still has high growth space, but it needs sufficient high-quality content production capacity. The film and television industry is passing the winter. According to the knowledge of China finance and economics society, the listed shares in Hong Kong have been listed continuously through the Chinese finance and economics society, and the majority of them have been listed in Hong Kong through the Chinese finance and economics society. According to the financial Associated Press, in the past three years, the number of shares in TMT that have returned to Hong Kong with secondary listing has reached 11, and there is a trend of accelerating encryption. We believe that the return of high-quality Internet companies to Hong Kong will diversify the investment structure of high-quality assets on the one hand, and on the other hand, it will also cause the blood pumping effect of funds. Therefore, we believe that the general direction of continuing to support the overseas listing of high-quality assets will not change. At the same time, Internet companies will continue to maintain stability and consistency on the policy side, which will benefit the Internet sector as a whole.
Investment advice
(1) influenced by liquidity, China US game and strong regulatory expectations, Internet leaders continue to kill and have entered the oversold range. This week’s policy positive is expected to boost market sentiment. We continue to look forward to the new opportunities for the Internet 3 era. The core recommends the community’s short video leader [Kwai -W], while paying attention to the oversold Internet leader, -W, beep, Tencent holdings, etc.
(2) immersing in the Internet is the future development trend. Metauniverse is in the initial stage of development. Compared with the implementation of C-end applications (requiring the popularization of access terminals), we believe that g-end / b-end projects are expected to be implemented first. At present, various countries and local governments have gradually introduced relevant policies of the meta universe. City pavilions, exhibition halls, theme pavilions, enterprise pavilions and cultural tourism performance activities are expected to become the first application scenarios for virtual cultural and creative projects. Core recommendations include [ Shanghai Fengyuzhu Culture Technology Co.Ltd(603466) ], creative design leaders of cultural and tourism activities [ Beijing Fengshangshiji Culture Media Co.Ltd(300860) ], [ Silkroad Visual Technology Co.Ltd(300556) ], etc. In the near future, many first tier cities will hold the meta universe summit, which highlights the thematic opportunities of the meta universe sector (while considering the impact of changes in the external environment on risk appetite). It is suggested to pay attention to the NFT direction [ Visual China Group Co.Ltd(000681) ], [ Three’S Company Media Group Co.Ltd(605168) ], [ Inmyshow Digital Technology (Group) Co.Ltd(600556) ]; Direction of meta universe platform [ Beijing Quanshi World Online Network Information Co.Ltd(002995) ]; Virtual digital human direction [ Bluefocus Intelligent Communications Group Co.Ltd(300058) ], [ Hylink Digital Solution Co.Ltd(603825) ].
(3) we are optimistic about the fundamentals of the game industry for a long time, and the short-term policy disturbance is expected to promote the development of the game industry. From the layout time point, focus on grasping before and after the release of the version number. At present, the share price of the game company has experienced a deep correction. There is a short-term game value before the release of the version number, and the certainty is established after the release of the version number, which has a long-term investment value. It is suggested to pay attention to [ Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) ] with high-quality R & D ability and end-to-end tour of Zhuxian world; [ Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) ] with strong operation ability, proven high-quality game R & D ability and sea distribution ability; Focusing on research and development, small and beautiful [ G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) ]; [netease-s] with rich product matrix and strong risk resistance.
Risk tips
The development progress of metauniverse is less than expected, the improvement of overseas liquidity is less than expected, the policy supervision is stricter than expected, the flow decline of game companies affected by the version number is more than expected, and the risk appetite is reduced due to changes in the external environment.
