Key investment points:
Current key recommendations: (1) cement sector: Recently, the national development and Reform Commission has intensively investigated the economic situation and deployed the economic work in the next stage. From the signals released by relevant meetings, in the next stage, Solidly Promoting the construction of key projects and vigorously promoting enterprise assistance and relief is still the focus of steady growth policy. In this context, cement demand is expected to increase in the second and third quarters. In the medium and long term, with the continuous promotion of carbon neutralization policy and the improvement of carbon reduction requirements of the industry, the production lines that cannot meet the standard will be phased out, the cement supply pattern is expected to be further improved and the industry concentration will be further improved. (2) Glass fiber sector: in the short term, the supply side of alkali free tank kiln roving has little change in the short term, and the demand support is good. The quotation may focus on maintaining stable operation, while the market price of electronic yarn still maintains a downward trend. In the long run, the downstream demand of glass fiber, especially the demand for wind power, automobile lightweight and PCB, has a large room for improvement, and the price of coarse sand is expected to remain high and stable. (3) Glass sector: under the background of double carbon policy, photovoltaic glass ushers in demand support. At the same time, the continuous improvement of double glass penetration also brings new growth rate to photovoltaic glass. However, affordable Internet access promotes industrial cost reduction and efficiency increase, puts forward higher requirements for enterprise technology and cost control, and benefits industry leaders with technology and cost advantages. At present, the valuation of the building materials industry is relatively low and the safety margin is high, so it is rated as “recommended”.
Recommended cement sector: after the Qingming Festival, the demand of China’s cement market has increased slightly, but the epidemic recurrence areas have strict control, poor road transportation, demand recovery is still affected, and the shipment of enterprises in different regions is maintained at 40-80%. In terms of price, due to the shortage of downstream funds and tepid demand in some areas, the cement price maintained a volatile adjustment trend. Given that it is difficult to end the impact of short-term epidemic prevention and control, and some enterprises have successively started or extended off peak production in order to alleviate the supply pressure, the cement price will maintain the shock adjustment trend in the later stage. At present, it is recommended to take the lead in the cement area Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , focusing on Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) .
Recommended glass fiber industry: alkali free tank kiln roving quotation or stability maintenance operation. With little change in the short-term supply side, the demand support is good, and the short-term price adjustment is expected to be small. The market price of electronic yarn still maintains a downward trend. Affected by the pressure of supply and the slow recovery of demand, the release of downstream deep processing and terminal demand is limited, there are few orders in the terminal market, and the transmission to the upstream is weak. The price of short-term electronic yarn may be stable, and the price of medium and long-term yarn will still be under pressure. At the macro level, the large-scale and high-quality development of wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation continues to advance, and the future demand for PCB and other products continues to improve, further increasing the demand space of the glass fiber industry. In terms of individual stocks, recommend industry leaders China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , and pay attention to Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) .
Glass industry: China’s float glass market rose and fell this week, with little change in the overall price, and the transaction is still flexible. In terms of demand, the market uncertainty increased during the week, and the logistics in some regions were obviously affected. Orders from downstream processing plants have not improved significantly. In terms of supply, in addition to the cold repair of a production line of Qingdao Taibo in the week, the local output decreased slightly, but the overall supply is still on the high side. In addition, the inventory of float factory continues to increase. Although the inventory in some areas decreases, the sustainability of inventory reduction is poor, and the pressure on the factory and warehouse is large. In terms of cost, the raw fuel is at a high level as a whole, and there is still a small rise expectation in the later stage. The prices of some original film manufacturers have been close to the cost line, and the short-term industry cost support still exists. Focus on the industry leader Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Xinyi Glass, Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) .
Other consumer building materials: the waterproof industry has broad development prospects and the market stock is increasing. After the introduction of new industry standards, the market is expected to be structurally adjusted and the concentration is further improved. Under the background of carbon neutralization, photovoltaic roofs are gradually rising, and the service life requirements of photovoltaic houses facing the waterproof layer have become a new growth point of the waterproof industry. In addition, the recovery expectation of infrastructure and real estate end storage is optimistic about the improvement of the demand of the waterproof industry. Focus on Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) . Recommend the gypsum board leader Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , the company’s “one body and two wings” layout is accelerated, and the waterproof and coating sectors are developing rapidly. We are optimistic about the future performance growth. The pipe sector focuses on the leader Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Hong Kong stock and China Liansu. The coating sector pays attention to Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) .
Risk warning: the construction progress of infrastructure projects is less than expected; The market demand is less than expected; Focus on the company’s performance not meeting expectations; The epidemic has repeatedly affected the economy; Adverse changes have taken place in the macro environment.
