Shipping: this week, the CCFI composite index reported 3204.8 points, down 2.1% month on month, of which the US West Route reported 2436.6 points, down 3.3% month on month, and the European line reported 5162.2 points, down 2.3% month on month. The recent outbreak in China has superimposed the interest rate cut of the Federal Reserve and the geopolitical impact. The volume and freight rates have both fallen, and the profitability of the industry may enter the stage of stress test. However, we believe that there is no need to be overly pessimistic at the current time point. In 21 years, due to the owners’ cautious expansion of transport capacity, the supply and demand of the industry will continue to be mismatched in 22-23 years, and the overall profitability of the industry will remain at a high level. The current valuation has strong attraction.
Airport: the passenger flow of civil aviation is at a low point recently, and it is expected that the demand will gradually recover after the epidemic subsides. The introduction of the three major aviation fleets is cautious as a whole. For example, excluding the b737max order, the total passenger fleet increment of the three major airlines is only 3.4%. If the operating pressure continues during the year, the actual fleet expansion rate is probably lower. The continuous low growth of transport capacity will create preconditions for the reversal of supply and demand. At present, the policy adheres to the “dynamic clearing” unswervingly, and the occasional epidemic may still have an impact on the operation of civil aviation. However, if the choice is loose one day, the demand for civil aviation is expected to recover rapidly. It is auspicious to recommend three major airlines, spring and autumn Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) disclosure annual report, subject to the reduction of international line passenger flow, the loss has expanded. The traffic monopoly position and high-quality consumption scene of the hub airport gathering high net worth passengers have not fundamentally changed due to the epidemic. At present, due to the pressure on the performance of international passenger reduction, once the door is opened, the performance of the airport will be greatly improved. Recommended Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) .
Express delivery: the recent epidemic in many places across the country has led to a significant decline in the business volume of the express industry compared with normal days. At the same time, considering the impact of the reduction of business volume on the allocation of fixed costs, we expect the negative impact on the short-term profits of express delivery enterprises to exceed the business volume. However, the impact of the epidemic is one-off, and the demand for short-term express delivery is more restrained than disappeared. We believe that after the epidemic recovers, the demand for express delivery is expected to rebound. Considering that the profits of the leading express companies will be greatly repaired this year and the current valuation is relatively cheap, we continue to recommend Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) and Zhongtong express.
Small and medium-sized stocks: recommend Jiangsu Shuangxing Color Plastic New Materials Co.Ltd(002585) , Hangzhou Honghua Digital Technology Stock Company Ltd(688789) , Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) , with high performance from bottom to top.
Investment suggestion: the epidemic this week has a great impact on the mood of transportation investment. The logistics in the epidemic area (especially in East China and Shanghai) is blocked, which has a negative impact on the factory supply chain and import and export collection and distribution. The stock prices of relevant express and logistics enterprises are relatively weak; At the same time, logistics ports related to infrastructure and REITs performed strongly under the mood of steady growth; Due to the impact of the epidemic on the import and export from March to April and the production enterprises in the epidemic area, the sensitivity of the market to the first quarterly report gradually decreases, and the bear market mentality controls the trading mood, that is, the probability of meeting the expectation may not rise, but lower than the expectation may fall; Therefore, the current investment strategy mainly focuses on short-term stable growth and long-term fundamentals; Recommendations for transportation recommend: Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) continueto recommend Jiangsu Shuangxing Color Plastic New Materials Co.Ltd(002585) , Hangzhou Honghua Digital Technology Stock Company Ltd(688789) , Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) , Joy Kie Corporation Limited(300994) .
Risk tip: the macroeconomic recovery is less than expected, the epidemic situation is repeated, and the oil price and exchange rate fluctuate violently
