Key investment points:
Monthly topic: as the epidemic enters its third year, how to view the impact of this round of epidemic rebound on the aviation industry?
Affected by the recent rebound of the local epidemic and the impact of industrial safety accidents, the daily travel times of airlines are close to the worst period of the epidemic in 2020. In the first year of the epidemic, some small and medium-sized private airlines with weak anti risk ability were either transferred from private capital holding to local state-owned assets holding, or taken over by new shareholders. Under the impact of a new round of epidemic rebound brought by Omicron, the balance sheet of the whole industry continues to be damaged, the possibility of industry mergers and acquisitions continues to increase, and a new round of changes is already in the process of preparation.
With the evolution of the virus and the announcement of the New Coronavirus treatment plan (trial version ninth), China's epidemic has entered the second half of this year. This year, it is expected to usher in the long-term starting point of the aviation industry. Looking ahead, after the epidemic prevention policy turns, the certainty brought by the valuation and repair logic of the airport aviation sector will lead the industry. At the same time, we are also optimistic about the long-term investment value of the airport sector in the post epidemic era and the supply and demand elasticity of the aviation sector in the upward stage of the cycle, but the inflection point still needs to wait patiently.
Logistics Express: the unit price remains stable, with emphasis on Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Zhongtong express, Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352)
Express delivery: in terms of middle and low-end tracks, e-commerce express companies with steadily improved profitability supported by the improvement of key recommendation pattern - Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Zhongtong express, Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) . Under the influence of the epidemic, the business volume of the express industry has been impacted, and the stock price performance of the head enterprises has also been adjusted. However, as an industry with the attribute of public utilities, express will quickly return to the right track after the recovery of the epidemic.
In terms of medium and high-end tracks, it is continuously recommended that the valuation return to the bottom range and the option value of new business highlights S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) . In 2021, SF's profitability will be rapidly restored. Looking forward to 2022, SF will, under the business strategy of steady development and healthy profit, continue to explore business synergy, continuously optimize production capacity and increase income while paying attention to benefit return.
Cross border Logistics: air and sea freight rates fluctuate at a high level, and cross-border e-commerce is recommended for a long time. The scarce target Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) . Since March, Pudong and Hong Kong, the major cargo airports, have been affected by the closure of the epidemic, reducing the efficiency of the supply chain. However, with the unsealing of the sealed areas, the market demand will be released, and the volume of goods will rise rapidly. China trade is expected to usher in the business development of both volume and price.
Airport aviation: the prosperity is low, and this year may be the starting point for the medium and long term
There are opportunities for deterministic valuation and repair in the airport sector. Although affected by the continuous impact of the epidemic, airports in first tier cities are still high-quality core assets of China's civil aviation industry. Their essence as a high-end traffic platform has not changed, and their natural monopoly position has not changed. On the day of the reopening of the country, when the value returns. Focus on Meilan Airport, the core asset of Hainan free trade port, and Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , one of China's three gateway airports with a valuation at the bottom of history.
In the current round of large cycle caused by covid-19 epidemic, the aviation sector has the dual logic of valuation repair and supply and demand elasticity. With the evolution of the epidemic and the release of the ninth edition of the diagnosis and treatment plan, China's anti epidemic has entered the second half. Affected by the recent epidemic and safety accidents, the prosperity of the industry is at a low level, but the high prosperity of civil aviation may be brewing, and this year may be the starting point for the medium and long term. Continuous key recommendation α and β Both Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , continue to recommend low-cost leader Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) .
Shipping: the centralized transportation boom remains at a high level, the dry and scattered boom cycle rises, and the oil transportation bottoms out waiting for a rebound
Container transportation: at present, it still maintains a high boom, and the port congestion is further aggravated. The off-season is not light, and it is expected to maintain a high boom this year. Dry and scattered: affected by port congestion, the supply side shrinks seriously, the demand side is expected to maintain positive growth in 2022, and the mismatch between supply and demand promotes the upward boom. Oil transportation: the supply is gradually bottoming out, waiting for the output to recover and release the demand. The supply and demand is expected to form a balance or even a scissors gap in Q4 and beyond 22 years. ① production increase progress: OPEC; ② Us Iraq negotiations; ③ VLCC ship dismantling; ④ The new demand caused by the route change caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Industry rating and investment strategy: e-commerce express buying pattern, comprehensive logistics buying layout, cross-border logistics buying dividends. There are valuation repair opportunities in the airport, and aviation has the dual logic of valuation repair and supply and demand elasticity. Focus on dry bulk and oil transportation sectors with marginal improvement. Maintain the industry "recommended" rating.
Key recommended stocks: Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Zhongtong express, Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) , Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) , Meilan Airport, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) .
Risk tip: for the company: failure of M & A, bankruptcy caused by cash flow fracture, passive substantial dilution of shares caused by low-price additional issuance, position explosion of franchisees, cost control less than expected, etc. Industry: business growth is lower than expected, major policy changes, intensified competition, industrial accidents, etc. Macro aspects: large economic fluctuations, geopolitical conflicts, large fluctuations in oil remittances, large-scale natural disasters, a new round of epidemic outbreaks, etc.
