Investment advice
This week’s topic: the second high-end Baijiu after the disease. From the perspective of regional distribution, the basic disk of the sub high-end target in the province is less affected by the epidemic, and there is differentiation outside the province, but the impact is controllable. 1) Fenjiu: the market in the province is less affected by the epidemic (accounting for 40%), the regional impact around Shanxi mainly comes from Shandong, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, and the impact of emerging markets mainly comes from East China. Combined with more benign channel inventory, Fen Liquor will have a relatively small impact. 2) Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) : the proportion of internal ginseng / drunkard in the province is about 55% / 30% respectively, and the impact of the epidemic is small. The proportion of Shandong outside the province is expected to be nearly 10%, but the impact of the epidemic has slowed down; The proportion of Beijing Tianjin Hebei, South China and East China is expected to be about the median single digit, and the phased impact is limited in overall consideration. 3) Willing: the proportion in the province is low in the secondary high-end; The northeast region outside the province, Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Shandong and areas around Taihu Lake are affected to varying degrees, while the proportion of Anhui and Zhejiang is still relatively small, and the overall impact will be slightly higher.
Overall, we believe that the epidemic will be controllable for the second high-end mobile sales. The consumption of Baijiu consumption in 3~4 is low in the month, and the mobile sales account for about 13%. Recently, according to channel feedback, the rhythm of Q2 payment in some regions will be delayed later. Liquor enterprises generally maintain the benign channel through measures such as goods control. The price is still stable after the festival, the brand potential energy is not reduced, and the concentration is expected to increase. We suggest that we should take a look at the length of the Baijiu liquor. During the 14th Five-Year, the sub high end Baijiu is always the relatively high sub sector of the liquor growth center, and the performance is also somewhat elastic.
Baijiu Baijiu: the pressure of the sector is under pressure during the week. The impact of the epidemic is expected to continue. We believe that 3~4 months are not the peak season for Baijiu consumption. If we consider the impact of the lack of consumption scenarios on the annual sales, we expect that the impact of high-end liquor is relatively low (Moutai basically has no influence) and the second high-end impact is in the small digits (the influence of Fen Liquor is relatively low). Due to the impact of the epidemic in Jiangsu and Anhui, the local liquor is expected to be in the middle to large single digits, but the demand rate for some rigid banquets will be replenished in the future. If the impact of the epidemic slows down, it is expected that the impact of mobile sales will mainly be the rhythm disturbance between months. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the demand release in subsequent peak seasons. At present, we are still the first to promote high-end, focusing on sub high-end and real estate wine.
Beer: we believe that beer is the top sub sector in the main line of epidemic repair, waiting for the inflection point of demand to appear. The period from March to April is still the off-season, and the channels begin to prepare goods in the peak season in mid and late April. Assuming that the epidemic prevention and control in the peak season is appropriate, the base number last year is low, and some compensatory demand is made up, it is still expected to realize the logic of volume increase. At the same time, the transmission of price increase in the early stage is relatively smooth, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensifies the fluctuation of commodity prices, but there is no need to worry about the cost pressure. Dynamic fee control and the second round of price increase are active measures to alleviate the higher than expected rise of costs, and the profit elasticity can still be released. The logic of medium and long-term high-end + operation efficiency improvement remains unchanged, and it is suggested to weaken the short-term disturbance.
Dairy products: the revenue growth of Yili and Mengniu in Q1 is expected to be more than double-digit. From the perspective of supply and demand, the 22-year probability of raw milk prices has gradually declined. However, the recent sharp rise in crops has led to the increase of dairy feeding costs, which still has a disturbance on milk prices in the short term. In 21 years, against the background of high raw milk prices, Yili and Mengniu still achieved the improvement of gross sales difference and net profit margin, and the trend of net profit margin improvement this year is still clear.
Food synthesis: the performance pressure of most food companies will be released in Q1. With the improvement of the epidemic situation and the decline of base pressure, it is expected to usher in marginal improvement. Among them, Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) performance is relatively stable. It is expected that Q1 revenue can achieve high single digit growth, and the profit growth rate is higher than that of revenue. In addition, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the progress of Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) new product launch.
Condiment: at present, affected by the epidemic situation and the international situation, the condiment industry is under a lot of pressure. The price increase from April to may may may become a factor with strong certainty in the short term. We suggest to relax the short-term performance requirements under the tight environment, maintain long-term confidence in the condiment industry, and continue to pay attention to the marginal improvement caused by consumption rebound and cost reduction. It is recommended to take the lead in raising prices.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risk / continuous and repeated epidemic risk / regional market competition risk.
