Market review: this week (from April 6 to April 8), Shenwan food and beverage industry rose or decreased by – 2.77%, which was greater than that of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 by – 1.35%; Among them, other alcohol (Shenwan class III, the same below) (0.09%) sector led the increase in Shenwan class III food and beverage sector; The three sectors of pre processed food (- 6.36%), meat products (- 5.14%) and cooked food (- 4.13%) ranked among the top three in the three sectors of Shenwan food and beverage.
Baijiu: consumption scenario still needs to be restored. The chairman of Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) is changing, and the the Yanghe River organization is adjusting. This week, the flying bottle of 26202670 bottles, the ring rose by about 70 yuan, the box price of 28302860 yuan, the ring is about 50 yuan, five of the price of the general price of about 965 yuan, the chain is flat, the famous wine price system is stable, the short-term East China epidemic still affects Baijiu drinking, banquet and other consumer scenarios, in April 8th, Jilin has taken the lead in achieving the goal of social zero. With the implementation of the epidemic control policy, the epidemic situation is expected to gradually decline in the following national areas. The Baijiu sector is positively catalyzed. On April 6, Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) announced that Zhou suming, the former chairman of the board of directors, retired at the age of, and elected Mr. Gu Xiangyue as the chairman of the board of directors. Mr. Gu took office as the general manager of the company in November 2020, deeply participated in the company’s operation and was familiar with the company’s sales and market conditions. After Mr. Gu took over, it is expected that the company will continue the strategic direction of developing central and southern Jiangsu, developing high-end products and distributing outside the province, and Guoyuan series is expected to continue to grow rapidly; On April 7, Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) announced the adoption of the proposal on the adjustment of internal organization, adding brewing management center and intellectual property protection department at the group level. At the same time, the company’s headquarters was relocated to Suqian to strengthen the construction of product quality and brand publicity. At the beginning of the year, the company completed the adjustment of marketing organization, established 61 business departments nationwide, and organized the flat operation of the system, which helped to improve the efficiency of sales front-end decision-making.
Popular goods: the upgrading trend of long-term consumption remains unchanged, and the robustness of high dividend, low debt and strong cash deserves attention. Repeated epidemics will curb end consumption in the short term, and there will also be pressure on the cost side of mass goods enterprises under inflationary pressure. We believe that the growth rate of the consumer industry will slow down in the short term, but the enterprise value with strong cash flow and low debt should be paid attention to. Some mass goods enterprises, such as Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) , pay attention to Ganso Co.Ltd(603886) , Toly Bread Co.Ltd(603866) the latest dividend rate is equivalent to the dividend index of China Securities Exchange Corporation, and is better than the dividend index of China Securities Exchange Corporation in terms of roe and debt ratio, The operation of the enterprise is relatively stable. In addition, with the consumption upgrading brought about by the increase of residents’ income, the long-term logic has not changed. High end beer continues to grow under the test of the epidemic in 2021, and the high-end process of the industry will continue to be promoted. It is recommended that Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) .
Investment suggestion: short term East China epidemic still affects Baijiu Baijiu and other consumption scenarios. In April 8th, Jilin has taken the lead in achieving the goal of clearing the society. With the implementation of the epidemic control policy, the epidemic situation is expected to gradually decline in the following national areas, and it will positively catalyze the liquor sector. The long-term consumption upgrading trend of popular goods remains unchanged, and the robustness of high dividend, low debt and strong cash deserves attention. Recommends the high-end Baijiu Moutai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and regional leading liquor enterprises, such as Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) and Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , and suggests that the secondary Baijiu liquor should be more flexible after the economic warming. Volkswagen products is preferred to be the leader with industry pricing power and relatively controllable cost, and pay attention to Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) .
Risk tips: the adjustment of restrictive industrial policies exceeded expectations, the scattered occurrence and control of the epidemic affected the recovery of consumption scenarios, the risk of higher than expected rise in raw material costs, food safety risks, etc.
