The purchase and sale restrictions in Lanzhou are relaxed, and Mianyang plans to launch preferential policies for multi child families. On April 5, Lanzhou City, Gansu Province issued several measures for Lanzhou city to implement the strategy of strengthening the provincial council and further optimize the business environment (No. 1), which relaxed the real estate policy in many aspects. Demand side: 1. Purchase restriction: filial piety and multi child families can purchase a new set of real estate in the purchase restriction area; 2. In terms of loan restriction: first, reduce the down payment ratio of commercial loans, with no less than 20% for the first house and no less than 30% for the second house; Second, in terms of the recognition standard for the first set of housing, the “loan but not house” policy is implemented. For families who own a set of housing and have settled the house purchase loan, if they re apply for a loan to buy a house in order to improve their living conditions, financial institutions implement the loan policy for the first set of housing. In addition, provident fund loans, talent purchase subsidies, pre-sale fund supervision, local auction deposit and other aspects have been relaxed to a certain extent. In addition, this week, Mianyang, Sichuan and Taizhou, Zhejiang gave preferential policies for families with many children. Mianyang gave subsidies for house purchase, and Taizhou raised the amount of provident fund loans. The outbreak and spillover of the epidemic in Shanghai, Jilin and other places this week had a great impact on the real estate market of the local and surrounding cities. The transaction data of many cities in the Yangtze River Delta and Dawan District fell sharply month on month. We believe that there are two major problems facing the current sales market: first, although the real estate policy has been relaxed in many places since March, it is mainly concentrated in the third and fourth tier cities and a small number of weak second tier cities. The “four restrictions” policy of most core second tier cities has not been relaxed, and the stimulation on the demand side is insufficient; 2、 Under the influence of the epidemic and the international situation, buyers’ expectation of future income has decreased, and their willingness to purchase with leverage has decreased rapidly. It is expected that more second and third tier cities with sales pressure will follow up in the future. Due to the urban implementation of policies, the “four restrictions” space of purchase restriction, loan restriction, sales restriction and price restriction will be gradually opened. The mortgage interest rate is expected to continue to decline further, improve residents’ leverage ratio and hedge the impact of house buyers on the decline of income expectations.
Market review: the increase ranks in the forefront of various industries, leading the market by 2.87 percentage points. This week, the cumulative change range of CITIC Real Estate Index was 1.8%, 2.87 percentage points ahead of the market, ranking fifth among the 29 CITIC industry sectors. A total of 68 stocks rose this week, down from 70 last week. (unless otherwise specified, this week in the report refers to the week of 4.4-4.8).
Transaction of new houses: affected by the epidemic in many places, the transaction area of new houses in 32 cities this week was 1.753 million square meters, down 46.3% month on month and 62.7% year-on-year. Among them, the transaction area of new houses in the sample first tier cities was 240000 square meters, with a month on month ratio of – 32.6% and a year-on-year ratio of – 61.2%; The sample of second tier cities is 1142000 m3, with a month on month ratio of – 46.1% and a year-on-year ratio of – 59.4%; The third tier cities in the sample were 371000 m3, with a month on month ratio of – 52.9% and a year-on-year ratio of – 70.9%.
Transaction of second-hand houses: affected by the epidemic in many places, the transaction area of second-hand houses in the 12 key cities we tracked this week totaled 794000 square meters, a month on month decrease of 23.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 41.8%. Among them, the transaction area of second-hand houses in the sample first tier cities this week was 253000 square meters, a month on month increase of – 13.7%; The sample of second tier cities is 427000 m3, with a month on month ratio of – 29.9%; The third tier cities in the sample are 113000 square meters, with a month on month ratio of – 19.2%. Since the beginning of the year, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses has been 12.771 million m3, with a year-on-year change of – 37.4%; Among them, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses in the sample first tier cities was 3.85 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 41.8%; The sample of second tier cities was 7.247 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 33.0%; The third tier cities in the sample were 1.674 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 33.0%.
Domestic credit bonds of key companies: according to the statistics of Shenwan industry real estate index, a total of 2 credit bonds of real estate enterprises were issued this week (4.4-4.10), down 12 month on month; The total issuance scale is 1.35 billion yuan, the total repayment amount is 11.32 billion yuan, and the net financing amount is -9.97 billion yuan.
Investment suggestion: the epidemic repeatedly affects the fundamentals, policy relaxation continues to promote, and maintain the “overweight” rating of the real estate development sector. We believe that this year is a large-scale policy easing cycle, which is a beta market. Real estate enterprises with good credit qualification, sufficient liquidity, sufficient soil reserves and high quality are the main choice. It is suggested to pay attention to: A shares Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; H-share China overseas development, green city China, China Resources Land, Longhu group, China Jinmao, Xuhui holding group, China Overseas Hongyang. Property management: Country Garden service, China Resources Vientiane, green city service, poly property, Yongsheng life service, Jinke service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) .
Risk tip: the speed of policy introduction and implementation are lower than expected, and the fundamentals continue to decline, causing a chain reaction. The repeated impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
