Key investment points
Market review: last week, the electrical equipment sector closed at 1088274, down – 4.45%. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 325185, down – 0.94%; Shenzhen composite index closed at 1195927, down – 2.2%; The CSI 300 index closed at 423077, down – 1.06%; The gem index closed at 256991, down – 3.64%. In terms of sub sectors, the photovoltaic equipment sector fell – 4.79%; Wind power equipment sector fell – 2.89%; The battery sector fell by – 5.02%; Power grid equipment sector fell – 4.47%; The motor sector fell – 2.79%, with the largest increase; Other power equipment sectors fell – 4.27%.
Investment suggestion: last week, the electrical equipment sector continued to adjust by a large margin, and the main sub sectors fell by a large margin. We believe that the fundamentals of all sectors of Dianxin have not changed, and the decline is mainly due to capital factors. After recent continuous adjustment, the valuation has returned to reasonable, the space for decline in the future is limited, and the rebound is imminent. At present, the photovoltaic sector is still strongly recommended. The performance probability in the first quarter is higher than expected, and the growth certainty of the sector in the future is the highest. In the global environment of high oil and gas prices, it is strongly recommended to actively layout the photovoltaic sector; The valuation of the new energy vehicle sector has reached a stage low. We expect that the sales volume data in April will still have significant month on month growth, and there is a rebound opportunity in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of high nickel ternary and undervalued copper foil.
New energy: in April, the commencement and terminal demand of all links of the industrial chain were affected by the epidemic, and the uncertainty increased. However, after the improvement of the epidemic, the terminal demand and the prosperity of the industry are highly uncertain, mainly due to a. the continuation of the distributed high growth trend, B. the release of silicon production capacity, and C. The high growth of installed demand in Europe. We believe that in the short term, the probability of photovoltaic data in the first quarter is higher than expected. With the continuous release of new silicon production capacity, the supply side is gradually abundant, which is expected to drive the growth of downstream demand. In the long run, the global PV installed capacity is expected to exceed 200GW in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of more than 30%. At present, there are investment opportunities in the whole PV sector. The order of segment segmentation is silicon battery silicon wafer module. It is recommended to actively layout companies with alpha.
Wind power: in the global environment of carbon emission reduction, it also plays an important role as photovoltaic, and the long-term trend is good. However, the short-term performance is affected by the price rise of upstream raw materials and the price reduction of downstream host machines, so it is difficult to achieve high growth. At present, the valuation is at a reasonable level. It is suggested to pay attention to the catalysis brought to the sector by the future bidding situation of the industry and the price trend of raw materials.
New energy vehicles: the sales data of March this week will continue to be released, Geely and GAC will continue to maintain high growth, and the sales data of March and April are expected to exceed expectations, forming a catalytic factor of stock price. However, in the short term, under the influence of the epidemic, the production of some auto enterprises is slightly affected. In the long term, due to the influence of lithium supply, the growth rate of global sales may be lower than expected, and the possibility of sector opportunities is low. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of technology replacement and capacity tension. It is recommended that the domestic aluminum-plastic film sector may replace the accelerated aluminum-plastic film sector this year.
Power equipment: last week, the international commodity prices remained stable as a whole, and the prices of copper, aluminum and steel were adjusted at a high level. It is still difficult to predict the subsequent price change trend and continue to follow up.
The combination of this week will combine the combination of the combination of the week: Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) .
Risk warning: the risk that the growth rate of the industry is lower than expected; Risk of policy uncertainty; The risk of price decline due to fierce market competition.
