Key investment points:
Zhou’s view: the current epidemic situation has repeatedly increased the downward pressure on the economy. According to Kerui’s data statistics, the sales scale of the top 100 real estate enterprises in March decreased by 52.7% year-on-year. Near the Q1 economic data release window, the market is more looking forward to the relaxation of policies, and the expectation of steady growth is further improved. The real estate chain and infrastructure chain may be expected to be marginal upward. The dilemma reversal of the real estate industry is more sensitive to policies, and the recent performance of real estate stocks is also strong; Infrastructure plays the role of counter cyclical regulation, which has also become an important part of the underlying economy. The undervalued sectors related to large buildings have also stepped out of the repair market. We believe that at present, the real estate policy is gradually relaxed in many places, the inflection point of real estate fundamentals is gradually approaching, the trend of real estate from low to high is gradually emerging, and the real estate chain will gradually benefit from real estate β Upward; Infrastructure investment remains resilient and continues to improve. At the current time point, in the process of gradually reaching the bottom of the real estate, it is suggested to choose the leading consumer building materials Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , and the diversified development of the leading is more promising α Advantages, the industry stabilizes and takes the lead in rebounding; Secondly, focus on the leader Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) , which provides one-stop fire service. The logic of expanding categories and increasing market share of the company is similar to that of Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) in 2019. Industrial fire protection can raise the valuation ceiling in the future. At the same time, benefiting from the steady growth of cement in the marginal area of real estate and infrastructure, we pay attention to Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) .
Consumption of building materials: the marginal of real estate is relaxed and expectations are rising, and the inflection point of the industry is gradually approaching. Under the background of the increasing downward pressure on the economy, the expectation of real estate policy relaxation has increased, which also coincides with the recent substantial relaxation of real estate regulation in many places, and the real estate fundamentals are expected to reach the bottom and stabilize rapidly; The negative credit impairment of consumer building materials worried by the market in the early stage will also be gradually implemented with the disclosure of the annual report. The trend of increasing the concentration of consumer building materials leaders is determined, and the growth is still stable. The rise of short-term raw materials has brought some pressure on the gross profit margin. However, enterprises actively transmit cost pressure through price increase and raw material reserves, and the gross profit margin is expected to gradually improve in the second half of the year. Waterproof materials that run through the construction cycle and are catalyzed by industry standards are preferred (pay attention to Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) ); The second is the pipe faucet ( Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ), the ceramic tile faucet ( Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ), and the gypsum board ( Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) ) benefiting from the completion cycle.
Cement: steady growth is expected to rise again. After the epidemic is alleviated, cement demand is expected to be released intensively. Recently, due to repeated epidemics in many places, the construction of downstream projects has slowed down, and the demand recovery is less than expected. We believe that the short-term disturbance of the epidemic situation will not change the gradual upward trend of demand, which will be delayed but will not be absent. The state actively promotes the investment in 102 major infrastructure projects. In the early stage, the investment in key infrastructure projects in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong and other places has been gradually implemented. At the same time, the real estate has been substantially relaxed in many places due to urban policies, and the real estate demand is expected to hit the bottom and rebound. With the marginal improvement of the epidemic, the subsequent demand is expected to further recover, the cement price will continue to rise, the current downward pressure on the economy will increase, the steady growth is expected to continue to increase, the real estate and infrastructure chain is still resilient, and the cement sector with underestimated value and high dividend will still benefit the most. It is suggested to pay attention to the faucet Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) and the elastic subject Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) .
Glass: the downstream demand recovers slowly and the price is weak. At present, under the influence of repeated epidemics and the tight capital chain of real estate developers, the demand for downstream real estate construction projects recovers slowly and the market operates weakly. It is expected that the demand will further recover after the epidemic situation improves. At the same time, the current downward pressure on the economy is increasing, and the market’s expectation of further easing of policies is increasing. From a macro perspective, the demand for real estate completion remains resilient, with a real estate sales area of more than 1.7 billion square meters in 18-21 years. With the arrival of the housing delivery cycle and the background of guaranteed housing delivery, new construction accelerates the transmission of support demand to completion; Recently, the real estate policies of local governments have continued to relax. Due to the effect of urban policy implementation, the real estate may gradually appear. The orders postponed since the second half of last year may usher in a centralized release. It is optimistic that the volume and price of glass will rise in a new round after the improvement of the epidemic situation. At the same time, the industrial chain extension of leading enterprises is gradually emerging, the proportion of growth businesses is gradually increasing, and the periodic fluctuation is gradually smoothed (it is recommended to pay attention to Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Xinyi Glass).
Glass fiber: the price of electronic yarn continues to fall, and the price of roving remains high and stable. At present, the inventory of roving industry continues to run at a low level, the price remains stable at a high level, and the profitability of enterprises is good; The price of electronic yarn continued to decline, the mainstream quotation of electronic yarn G75 fell to the range of 85009000 yuan / ton, the mainstream quotation of electronic cloth price fell to about 3.2-3.8 yuan / meter, and the electronic yarn operated weakly. We believe that roving demand remains strong, and the rapid growth of new energy vehicles supports the strong demand for thermoplastic yarn in 2022; The installed capacity of wind power will gradually pick up in 2022, and the installed capacity of wind power in the 14th five year plan may exceed the expectation again, so as to stimulate the demand of upstream and downstream industrial chains and the demand for high-end products of the industry; According to the tracked industrial production expansion plan, the new supply in 2022 is limited, the supply and demand of the industry remain matched, and the high outlook of the industry may continue or exceed expectations; The price of electronic yarn drops rapidly or further squeezes the living space of small and medium-sized enterprises to curb the disorderly expansion of enterprises. The cost advantage of leading enterprises is obvious, and the capacity expansion realizes the advantage of supplementing the price with quantity. (it is suggested to pay attention to China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) ).
Risk warning: the investment in fixed assets is lower than expected; The aggravation of trade conflict leads to the obstruction of sales volume of export enterprises; The margin of environmental protection supervision is relaxed, and the supply contraction is lower than expected; The sharp rise in the price of raw materials has brought cost pressure.
