Report summary
Lithium carbonate prices fluctuated at a high level, overseas price increase + customs clearance was blocked, and lithium concentrate continued to rise. During the week, the price of lithium hydroxide was stable, the price of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.2%, and the price of lithium concentrate increased by 6.22%. At present, China’s lithium salt spot market is still in a game state, and the downstream still holds the attitude of purchasing lithium salt on demand. Although the large upstream manufacturers are still supporting the price, some are beginning to loosen and slightly reduce the bidding price. Last week, allkem updated the price of lithium concentrate. It is expected that Q2 will rise to 5000 $/ T. with the serious epidemic in Shanghai, China, the efficiency of lithium concentrate customs clearance has decreased, and the price of lithium concentrate has increased significantly during the week.
Positive electrode enterprises continued to wait and see, and the output decreased in April. According to SMM statistics, the output of lithium iron phosphate in China in April is expected to be 41000 tons, down 18% month on month, and the output of ternary cathode material is expected to be 47000 tons, down 5% month on month. Since March, the nickel price has fluctuated violently, and the spot market is very chaotic. Due to the high price of lithium salt, it is more difficult to prepare goods downstream. At the same time, April May is the off-season of new energy vehicles. The order growth rate of downstream battery plants is lower than expected, and China’s Sanyuan and LFP cathode enterprises began to reduce production. It is expected that the short-term market is still in the state of accumulating upstream inventory + removing downstream inventory. With the bottom of downstream inventory and rising demand, lithium salt price is expected to be supported.
In March, new energy vehicles achieved brilliant results, and Byd Company Limited(002594) announced the shutdown of fuel vehicles. During the week, a number of auto companies released the production and sales data in March. The Byd Company Limited(002594) sales volume was 104878, with a year-on-year increase of 333%. Xiaopeng delivered 15414 vehicles in March, with a month-on-month increase of 148% and a year-on-year increase of 202%. Ideal vehicles were delivered 11034, with a year-on-year increase of 125.2%. Weilai delivered 9985 vehicles in March, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6% Byd Company Limited(002594) also announced that the production of fuel vehicles will be stopped from March 2022. In the future, the automotive sector will focus on pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. The penetration of new energy vehicles has accelerated, and a number of key technologies have become mature. We continue to be optimistic about the growth of new energy vehicles, and the demand for lithium is still strong.
Musk promotes or directly develops lithium mining and refining. “Lithium prices have risen to crazy levels, and Tesla may have to directly carry out large-scale mining and refining operations unless the cost pressure is eased,” Musk said on twitter this week In the early years, Tesla had thought about mining lithium ore by itself. In 2020, Tesla planned to acquire cypress development and hoped to extract lithium from clay deposits in southwest Nevada. However, the two sides failed to reach an agreement, so they had to sign long-term supply contracts with Piedmont lithium and Ganfeng.
Focus on: Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) , Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) .
Risk tip: the macro environment changes, the demand is lower than expected, and the policy uncertainty increases.
