Why do we think the "post real estate cycle" market will run through the whole year
The policy is expected to last longer than expected. The real estate regulation was relaxed from 2008 to 2011 and 2014, with a duration of more than one year. All started from the decline in real estate sales and the great downward pressure on the economy; Finally, commercial housing sales increased in large quantities and prices accelerated. This round of real estate relaxation began in November 2021. At present, it is still in the stage of increasing policy and great sales pressure of top 100 real estate enterprises.
Real estate is expected to usher in the stage of fundamental improvement. Based on policy relaxation, the secondary market experienced a wave of expected fermentation stage in November and December 2021; With the policy overweight, the relief of credit pressure of private real estate enterprises, the recovery of sales volume of leading real estate enterprises and the rise of commercial housing prices are expected to become the driving force of the interpretation of the real estate chain market.
Will the demand for "post real estate cycle" collapse with the decline of new house sales
The characteristics of consumer goods in the home building materials industry in the United States are significant. In the US market, the current demand for renovation of second-hand houses accounts for nearly 90%, and that of new houses accounts for only 10%; In the U.S. home building materials industry (taking mattresses as an example), in addition to 20082009, terminal retail has been growing steadily, showing typical characteristics of consumer goods, and has weak correlation with the number of real estate sales. The decoration of 25 million units in China will be normalized every year. In the Chinese market, in the long run, the proportion of new houses will gradually decline, the proportion of old houses renovated will gradually increase, the consumption attribute of the real estate industry will increase and the cyclical characteristics will weaken (please refer to the text for detailed calculation); With reference to the data of range hoods (basically representing new decoration) and the stock of 300 million + houses in China, the number of houses decorated in China is expected to remain at 25-30 million every year. At the same time, there is a trend of upgrading post cycle consumption, which will also drive the growth of the industry.
Can the post cycle leader deduce the growth path of Midea / Anta / YIDELI / Xuanwei
The increase of leading market share is the underlying logic. Since 2020, China's "post real estate cycle" has entered the acceleration stage of the strong and the strong, and the growth rate of leading companies has generally exceeded 20 points in the industry: (1) under the epidemic, small and medium-sized enterprises, dealers and other operating difficulties have accelerated their withdrawal from the market; (2) Chinese consumers have gradually entered the era of one-stop large home furnishings, and their requirements for comprehensive capabilities such as enterprise supply chain integration and digitization have increased rapidly. With significant leading advantages, they have gradually entered the stage of platform operation; (3) According to our calculation, the concentration of the top five customized home furnishings and software in China is less than 10%, which is the only industry in which the integration of leading consumer goods has not been completed, and the leading market share is obviously low. YIDELI / Xuanwei's growth path. Referring to overseas, YIDELI and Xuanwei, as leaders of different segments in the post real estate cycle, have stronger and stronger barriers to channels, products, supply chain and brand. They still show continuous growth in the recession of real estate in their own country, and the valuation center continues to move upward. They are rare long-term high-quality white horse assets.
Why do we think that the "post real estate cycle" is more flexible after the epidemic
After the epidemic, the elasticity of "real estate post cycle" is significant. Unlike other consumer goods, the "post real estate cycle" consumption affected during the epidemic will not disappear, but will only be delayed. After the epidemic, orders will usher in a centralized outbreak period; Referring to 2020, the performance of 2020q3 / 2020q4 / 2021q1, the leader of household and building materials, shows great flexibility. Especially with the end of this round of rising raw material costs, the leader of "real estate post cycle" is expected to usher in the best performance growth period.
Investment suggestion: the leading white horse and the elastic target are pushed together
The first-line faucet has stability. In the medium and long term, the leading white horse Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , the leading edge is prominent, its own growth is highly deterministic, and the logic of share increase is more smooth. 1) Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) : Software + customization integration, strong set-up sales ability, customer single value driven growth in the same store, upgrading from wholesale to retail mode, pe19x in 22 years; 2) Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) : CAXA has outstanding advantages in information system and supply chain, strong channel dominance, strong growth in the same store, high-speed promotion of packaged large home, and 22-year pe23x; 3) Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) : China has made great efforts to make high-end appliances. Casati brand leads the high-end household appliance market. At the same time, overseas has fully entered the harvest season, the cost rate has improved, and the profitability has been realized. Pe14x has been established for 22 years; 4) Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) : the b-end accelerated the sinking of the channel and the C-end entered the dividend release period. Both of them made efforts to accelerate the capture of shares. At the same time, the expansion of multiple categories made rapid progress and began to take shape. Pe21x will be launched in 2022.
The second-line high-quality target is elastic. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of elastic targets with high growth and low value. 1) It is suggested to pay attention to Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , which is approaching the inflection point of operation. The new management brings multi-level operation improvements such as products, channels and efficiency. The whole customization strategy promotes the retail customer unit price, customer flow and conversion rate, and pe13x in 22 years; 2) It is recommended to pay attention to Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) , set an internal revenue target of 10 billion yuan in three years (a compound growth rate of about 25% in 22-24 years), integrate wardrobe, wooden door and other brands smoothly, expand bulk business with high quality, increase investment in packaging business, and start large-scale, pe13x in 22 years.
Risk warning: the policy is less than expected and the duration of the epidemic is longer than expected
