Market Review
In the three trading days after the festival (04060408), the CSI 300 fell 1.1%, and the building materials (CITIC) index rose 4%. Benefiting from the improvement of infrastructure and real estate expectations, the relevant upstream sub sectors achieved good gains. Among individual stocks, Xinjiang Guotong Pipeline Co.Ltd(002205) , Hainan Ruize New Building Material Co.Ltd(002596) , Guangdong Sanhe Pile Co.Ltd(003037) , Xinjiang Qingsong Building Materials And Chemicals(Group)Co.Ltd(600425) , Sichuan Golden Summit (Group) Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(600678) led the increase.
Continue to recommend the main line of steady growth and be optimistic about the reversal opportunity of consumption of building materials
In the past two weeks, the varieties of real estate and infrastructure chain have performed strongly. We believe that the core reasons include: 1) affected by the epidemic and other factors in March, the pressure on macroeconomic data may be more obvious, and the demand for steady growth expected by the market continues to strengthen; 2) Recently, the infrastructure and real estate policies related to steady growth have continued to be introduced. Last week, the national development and Reform Commission surveyed the economic situation in the first quarter and proposed that there is great pressure on steady growth, and it is the top priority to focus on projects and steady investment. The national Standing Committee proposed to implement and use monetary policy tools to strengthen the implementation of steady monetary policy. The Ministry of water resources proposed to start another batch of water conservancy projects this year. Lanzhou issued a document, and the down payment ratio of second homes is at least 30%, The loan settlement shall be in accordance with the first house loan policy; 3) From the micro level, we judge that some central construction enterprises and local state-owned enterprises are still expected to achieve good order or performance growth in Q1. Although consumer building materials are affected by factors such as the decline of the real estate boom, the high base and cost pressure in the same period in Q1, driven by the increase of market concentration and the reform of leading channels, the delivery situation is expected to be better than the market expectation, and the rise of raw material prices is slowing down Driven by the rise in product prices, profitability is expected to show a bottom rebound trend.
We continue to recommend the main line of steady growth. The short-term infrastructure and real estate chain are expected to benefit, and we are still optimistic about the investment value of consumer building materials in the medium and long term: 1) we mentioned in last week's weekly report that the data of commercial housing sales and second-hand housing in representative cities in March 30 are still depressed. We judge that the real estate volume index may not pick up significantly in March, and the expectation of steady growth of short-term infrastructure may continue to increase. The related varieties of building materials include infrastructure pipelines; 2) When the real estate data continues to be depressed, the relevant policies to relax the real estate all over the country may continue to be issued, which may help accelerate the recovery of the real estate volume. We judge that the fundamentals of consumer building materials are expected to recover significantly in the second half of the year, and the medium and long-term value of the current time point is prominent.
Continue to be optimistic about stable growth and fundamental reversal, and recommend the consumption of building materials / pipelines / cement, etc
1) influenced by the prosperity of real estate, capital chain and cost pressure last year, the above factors are expected to gradually improve. In the medium and long term, the leading companies have started channel reform, and the scale effect is expected to continuously improve the industry concentration, both long and short; 2) The downstream of the plastic pipeline sector has both infrastructure and real estate. The infrastructure end is expected to benefit from the warming of municipal pipe network investment, and the logic of the real estate end is similar to that of consumer building materials; 3) Cement is expected to benefit from the improvement of follow-up infrastructure and real estate demand. In the medium and long term, the supply pattern is expected to be continuously optimized; 4) At present, the market value of the leading glass enterprises is at a low level. At present, they are in the period of accelerated resumption of work in spring, and the glass price is expected to gradually rise. This year, the overall supply and demand of the industry may still be in a tight balance, the unit profit of float glass is expected to be relatively stable, photovoltaic glass is expected to benefit from the recovery of the industrial chain, and electronic glass is expected to benefit from the large volume of new products such as domestic substitutes and folding screens; 5) The demand side of glass fiber is driven by the downstream of wind power and overseas, and the increment on the supply side is limited.
Investment advice
Recommendations for consumer building materials Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , etc; The pipeline recommends China Liansu, Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) , ad shares, etc; Cement recommendations Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) ; Glass recommended Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Xinyi Glass, etc; Glass fiber recommendation China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) etc;
Risk tip: the demand for infrastructure and real estate fell more than expected, affecting the rising trend of cement and glass prices; The promotion of old reform and new urbanization was less than expected.
