Core view
Zhou focus: how does the short-term epidemic affect transportation?
1) closure of toll stations: incomplete statistics on the closure of toll stations in some provinces and cities across the country, a total of 2356 toll stations, including 605 closed, accounting for 26%, and 511 toll stations in Jiangsu and Zhejiang in East China, a total of 193 closed, accounting for 37.8%. 2) In terms of road freight transport: under the influence of the epidemic, the national road freight index (100 in the same period of 19 years) is 70.71 points, which is the lowest point since the availability of data, except for the Spring Festival, may day, 11 and other holidays. Since April, only six provinces including Gansu, Hainan and Inner Mongolia have been higher than the 19-year average, and only three provinces including Xinjiang, Gansu and Inner Mongolia have achieved year-on-year growth in 21 years. Among them, in Shanghai and Jilin Province, where the epidemic is the most serious, the road freight index fell to the lowest point since the data were available, 16.45 and 14.38 points respectively, that is, 83.55% and 85.62% lower than that in 19 years. On the whole, under the influence of the short-term epidemic, local road control measures have indeed been strengthened, which has an impact on the logistics supply chain to a certain extent. The Ministry of transport issued a message on the afternoon of April 9, requiring all efforts to ensure efficient and smooth freight logistics. Looking forward to the follow-up, with the implementation of the policy, it is expected that the road control measures around the country will be gradually reduced, and the businesses such as resumption of work and production, logistics support and express delivery will gradually return to normal.
Baiyun and Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) released the annual report of 2021. 1) Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) : net profit deducted for the whole year was -455 million, with year-on-year loss reduction and Q4 profit of 80 million. The increase in revenue and profit in the fourth quarter was mainly due to the recognition of some revenue and funds in the fourth quarter. Take off and landing sorties, passenger throughput and cargo throughput were – 3.1%, – 8.0% and + 16.3% respectively year-on-year; 2) Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) : loss of 21 years – 34 million, year-on-year loss. The overall loss in the second half of the year is expected to be mainly due to the repeated epidemic situation, the increase of epidemic prevention expenditure and the production of satellite hall. Take off and landing sorties, passenger throughput and cargo throughput were – 0.7%, – 4.1% and + 12.1% respectively year-on-year.
Industry tracking: 1) aviation: affected by repeated epidemics and events, the number of flights decreased significantly. The number of three major aviation flights in April decreased by 45.6% month on month compared with March, and decreased by 78.9% compared with the same period in 19 years; 2) Express: during the Qingming Festival, the National Express received 660 million packages, a year-on-year decrease of 13.3%; 3) Shipping: SCFI fell 2.0% in the week, with an average increase of 73% this year; 4) Air cargo: the departure price in Pudong increased by 10.5% on a weekly basis.
Market review: this week (2022 / 4 / 4-2022 / 4 / 10), CSI 300 fell 1.1%, and the transportation sector fell 1.4%, ranking 16th among Shenwan’s 31 primary industries. The first tier, the third tier, and the railway logistics industries rose by 1.4%, while the first tier, the third tier, and the middle tier, respectively, rose by 1.4%, while the second tier, the third tier, and the second tier, and the third tier, respectively, fell by 1.4%, while the second tier, the third tier, and the third tier, the express, and the second tier, fell by 1.4%, respectively.
Investment proposal and investment object
Aviation: optimistic about the cyclical elasticity of the aviation sector after the epidemic. Core logic: the reversal of supply and demand drives the double increase of passenger seat rate and ticket price, and promotes the performance elasticity. The direction of epidemic repair is determined and the time point is uncertain. At present, it has gradually entered a new round of layout period. It is suggested to pay attention to Air China Limited(601111) ( Air China Limited(601111) , not rated), private airlines Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) ( Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , increased holdings), China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) ( China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) , not rated), etc.
Express: we are optimistic about S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) ( S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , buy) the long-term barriers will be further strengthened and enter the period of strategic layout. In the long run, SF is still the core asset of China’s logistics industry. With the gradual realization of cost control and the gradual operation of Ezhou airport, the company is expected to build new barriers and advantageous positions in the fields of time limited parts, international parts and tob supply chain. The current time point is suitable for the long-term strategic layout. Tongda is the basis of short-term benefit policy, and the single ticket price has improved significantly. We pay attention to Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) ( Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , not rated) and Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) ( Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , not rated).
Undervalued high dividend varieties: focus on the expressway sector. The current dividend yield is generally 4-5%, with allocation value. It is suggested to pay attention to Jiangsu Expressway Company Limited(600377) ( Jiangsu Expressway Company Limited(600377) , Unrated) (dividend yield 5%), China Merchants Expressway Network Technology Holdings Co.Ltd(001965) ( China Merchants Expressway Network Technology Holdings Co.Ltd(001965) , Unrated) (5%), etc.
Risk tips
The macro-economy is less than expected, the impact of the epidemic is more than expected, the impact of the air crash is more than expected, and the policy is less than expected
