Core view
The transaction data of real estate sales in March continued to decline, and the real estate policy is expected to continue to increase under the pressure of the epidemic. According to wind, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities was 9.699 million square meters, yoy-47.3%, with a growth rate of mom-20.0pct; The sales area of second-hand houses in 14 large and medium-sized cities such as Beijing and Nanjing was 5.854 million square meters, yoy-27.3%, with a growth rate of mom + 3.0pct. The terminal demand for commercial housing is still weak. In terms of land transaction, the planned construction area of land transaction in 100 large and medium-sized cities in March was 86 million square meters, yoy-44.6%, with a growth rate of mom-26.3pct. Land transaction data also showed an accelerated downward trend, indicating that the current funds of real estate enterprises are still tight. We believe that the priority of current real estate enterprises for the use of funds is to repay the due debts, promote the completion of existing projects, and carry out new projects. Since 2022, real estate thunderstorms have decreased, but glass deep processing orders have not improved, prices are still weak, and real estate land transaction data have accelerated downward exploration, indicating that the current improvement of real estate enterprises' funds is only the first level of improvement, unable to promote existing projects and carry out new projects. The data in March showed that the current terminal demand for real estate is weak, the improvement of the capital of real estate enterprises is very limited, and the supply of commercial housing is also shrinking. Since March, the epidemic situation has shown a multi-point sporadic trend throughout the country, and the number of cases in some provinces and cities has increased rapidly. Under the influence of the epidemic, the pace of demand recovery has been interrupted and the downward pressure on the economy has intensified, indicating that more policy support is needed to stabilize growth. We believe that there is more room for expectation for further relaxation of real estate policy. In March, Zhengzhou / Harbin / Fuzhou and other places adjusted policies on purchase and loan restrictions, involving down payment ratio, mortgage interest rate and many other aspects. We believe that with the impact of the epidemic, market expectations, real estate enterprise fundamentals and other factors, there may be more room for policy optimization in the future, and the valuation level of consumer building materials is expected to be repaired. In terms of variety selection, we suggest to select industry leaders with steady growth and relatively low cost pressure.
Looking back, the relative excess return of CITIC Building Materials (2024 / 2 / 08) was 300.0% this week, and the relative excess return of CITIC Building Materials (2024 / 2 / 08) was 300.0% this week. Year to date, the yield of the building materials sector is - 7.8%, compared with the excess yield of CSI 300 is 6.6%. Last week, the yield of the preferred portfolio was 3.9%, compared with the excess yield of the building materials index was - 0.1%, and the cumulative yield / excess yield was - 10.3/16%.
Summary of weekly data of building materials: the average price of float glass in China this week was 104.25 yuan / weight box, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% / 12.8%; The inventory was 57.13 million weight boxes, up 0.89% / 95.8% year-on-year. Under the dual influence of the epidemic and demand, glass remains weak. This week, the average price of national mainstream winding direct yarn is 6300 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month; The average price of electronic yarn was 34.63% lower than that of electronic yarn. Glass fiber still maintains a tight balance between supply and demand. The average transaction price of the national cement market this week was 509 yuan / ton, down 0.3% month on month. This week, the cement delivery rate rose 3.2pct to 61.1% month on month; The storage capacity ratio was 63.5%, up 1.0pct month on month. The current nationwide epidemic has a certain impact on the construction industry, resulting in weak data performance of shipment and storage capacity ratio.
Investment proposal and investment object
Optimistic about photovoltaic / electronic glass sector, recommend CSG a ( Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , buy); We recommend Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ( Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , buy); In the cement section, it is suggested to pay attention to Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ( Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , not rated) and Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ( Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , overweight) under the background of infrastructure overweight / expected improvement of real estate policy. Long term optimistic about waterproof faucet Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ( Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , buy). In addition, recommend Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) ( Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , buy) of new materials and UTG sector which is expected to grow rapidly. Preferred combination for next week: CSG a, Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552)
Risk tip: the growth rate of infrastructure / real estate investment does not meet expectations, and the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply
