This week’s topic: drastic changes in Japan’s home furnishing industry, a brief analysis of YIDELI nitori’s success against the trend. Japan’s furniture industry was in a boom period from 1980 to 1991. In 1991, Japan’s furniture retail sales peaked, but then began to decline all the way. We believe that the main reasons for the prosperity and decline of Japan’s home furnishing industry are the decline of real estate dividends and the obvious change of consumption tendency in Japan. In this process, nitori went against the trend. We believe that the main reason is that on the one hand, the company timely grasped the market characteristics and paid attention to changing low-frequency consumption into high-frequency consumption in product category layout and channel development; On the other hand, the production and efficient logistics and storage system can effectively reduce the company’s costs.
Investment strategy in 2022: seek “progress” in “change” and take the lead in subdividing leaders. Furniture: focus on domestic market channel reform opportunities. Among them, it is suggested to pay attention to Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) , Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) etc. in the finished furniture sector. Papermaking, packaging and printing: subdivide the track pattern and optimize the strong. It is suggested to pay attention to Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) , Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) , Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) , Quzhou Wuzhou Special Paper Co.Ltd(605007) , Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) , Hangzhou Haoyue Personal Care Co.Ltd(605009) , etc. Entertainment and jewelry sector: the consumption upgrading continues and the prosperity rises. It is suggested to pay attention to Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) and Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) etc. Retail of home building materials: professional home building materials stores are still dominant, and digital and high-frequency consumption empowerment have become the mainstream. It is suggested to pay attention to Easyhome New Retail Group Corporation Limited(000785) , Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd(601828) , which are leading in digital transformation. Textile and clothing: the trend of national fashion continues, and there are good opportunities for sports shoes and children’s wear. It is suggested to pay attention to Anta sports, Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) , Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) , Bosideng, etc.
Market review this week: this week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.94%, and the light industry manufacturing industry fell 1.36%, slightly underperforming the market. The textile and garment industry fell 1.11% this week, slightly underperforming the market. Among them, the paper sector fell 0.76%, the packaging and printing sector fell 3.18%, the home sector rose 0.07%, the entertainment light industry sector fell 3.15%, and other light industry sectors fell 2.04%. The top three gainers of light manufacturing industry this week are A-Zenith Home Furnishings Co.Ltd(603389) (17.97%), Guangdong Enpack Packaging Co.Ltd(002846) (7.43%), Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (5.69%); The top three declines were Guizhou Yongji Printing Co.Ltd(603058) (- 21.98%), Xiamen Jihong Technology Co.Ltd(002803) (- 9.97%), Shenzhen Prince New Materials Co.Ltd(002735) (- 8.5%). The top three gainers of textile and garment industry are Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) (20.58%), St Tianshou (10.72%) and Zhejiang Jasan Holding Group Co.Ltd(603558) (5.83%); The top three declines were Shandong Ruyi Woolen Garment Group Co.Ltd(002193) (- 10.31%), Li Ning (- 9.37%) and China Dive Company Limited(300526) (- 8.66%).
One week key data tracking: the price of dissolved pulp this week is 8200 yuan / ton, up 4% from last week. The quotation of wood pulp on the outer sector this week was flat compared with last week. In terms of finished paper, the average market prices of whiteboard / white cardboard were 4897 / 6400 yuan / ton respectively, compared with + 12 / + 50 yuan / ton last week, and the prices of other kinds of paper were the same. The number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large and medium-sized cities this week was 24094, up 16% from last week; This week, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities was 2.55 million square meters, up 14% from last week. This week, China’s cotton price index: 328 was 22751 yuan / ton, down 117 yuan / ton from last week; Cotlook: a index: 1% tariff was 23783 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week; The price difference between Chinese and foreign cotton was – 1032 yuan / ton, down 117 yuan / ton from last week; The closing price of cotton futures on the Zheng stock exchange this week was 21605 yuan / ton, down 135 yuan / ton from last week; The closing price of cotton futures on the New York Stock Exchange was 132.45 cents / pound, down 2.39 cents / pound from last week.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply; Risk of sluggish terminal demand; Exchange rate fluctuation risk.
