Key news tracking this week
The Ministry of industry and information technology, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of science and technology, the Ministry of ecological environment, the Ministry of emergency management and the National Energy Administration recently jointly issued the guiding opinions on promoting the high-quality development of petrochemical and chemical industry in the 14th five year plan. The opinions put forward that by 2025, the China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) chemical industry will basically form a high-quality development pattern with strong independent innovation ability, reasonable structural layout, green, safe and low-carbon, greatly improve the guarantee ability of high-end products, significantly enhance the core competitiveness, and take a solid step towards high-level self-reliance and self-improvement. And in five aspects: innovation and development, industrial structure, industrial layout, digital transformation and green security
Specific development goals are defined.
Price tracking comments on key products this week
WTI oil prices fell 1% this week to US $98.26/barrel.
Key injection sub industries: viscose staple fiber rose 2.2% month on month this week; DMF / rubber / calcium carbide PVC / polymerized MDI / Spandex / urea / TDI / ethylene PVC / ethylene glycol decreased by 4.8% / 2.3% / 2.1% / 2.0% / 1.9% / 1.0% / 0.5% / 0.3% / 0.2% month on month respectively; Silicone / solid methionine / pure MDI / VA / light soda ash / heavy soda ash / titanium dioxide / liquid methionine / viscose filament / VE / acetic acid / caustic soda prices remained unchanged.
The top five sub industries of this week’s increase: diammonium phosphate (FOB bulk in the Gulf of the United States) (+ 45.9%), American LPG (Texas) (+ 16.9%), SBS dry rubber (792 Zhejiang) (+ 12.7%), natural gas Henry hub (spot) (+ 11.8%), butyl rubber (East China Langsheng 301) (+ 9.5%).
Viscose: the market price trend of viscose staple fiber is upward this week, and the manufacturer’s quotation is mostly concentrated at 1390014500 yuan / ton. At present, the cost of viscose staple fiber raw materials remains high, which supports the general rise of manufacturers’ offer. Affected by the epidemic control, the logistics transportation in some regions is blocked, the progress of spot delivery is slowed down, and the overall production reduction of the industry is obvious. On the whole, the price of viscose staple fiber raw materials was high during the week, and the manufacturers generally raised prices to cope with it. The overall market transactions were general, mainly in the form of just needed replenishment and signing. Under the impact of the epidemic, the terminal demand was still flat, new order negotiations were limited, and the price of viscose staple fiber might be strong in the near future.
Market performance of chemical sector this week
The basic chemical sector fell 0.54% compared with last week, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 1.06% compared with last week. The basic chemical sector outperformed the market by 0.52 percentage points, ranking 11th in all sectors. According to Shen Wan’s classification, the basic chemical sub industries with large weekly increases include: phosphate fertilizer (+ 12.72%), phosphate chemical and phosphate (+ 12.25%), potassium fertilizer (+ 6.94%), compound fertilizer (+ 6.43%), polyester (+ 4.39%).
Key sub industry views
(1) many factors affect the 22-year prosperity of the sub industry. The overall profitability of the pesticide industry is expected to improve in the 22-year period when the cultivated land area is expected to increase, grain prices remain at a high level, China’s supply is orderly and prices rise in the fourth quarter. It is recommended that Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Shandong Weifang Rainbow Chemical Co.Ltd(301035) , Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) , Limin Group Co.Ltd(002734) ;
The prosperity of the tire industry has bottomed out and the new energy field has brought development opportunities. It is suggested to pay attention to Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) . The boom of viscose industry is expected to reverse, and Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) . (2) The demand economy is relatively weak, and the fields of semiconductor materials, military materials and other new materials are independent and controllable in the medium and long term; The chemical synthesis platform company Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , and China’s private gas leading enterprise Suzhou Jinhong Gas Co.Ltd(688106) . (3) The downstream demand is stable, and great attention is paid to the subdivided fields such as photovoltaic, wind power, new energy and sugar substitutes; It is recommended that the leader of new energy functional materials Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) , and the global leader of sweeteners Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) . (4) The vertical and horizontal expansion of the leading enterprises has highlighted the advantages of integration, and the profit center is expected to rise; Focus on Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) (jointly covered with the medical group).
Risk warning: risk of large fluctuation of crude oil price; Covid-19 epidemic leads to less demand than expected risk; Safety and environmental protection risks
