The overall market fell, with the semiconductor index down 5.13%
The overall market fell this week (2022 / 04 / 012022 / 04 / 08). The CSI 300 index fell 1.06% and the semiconductor index fell 5.13%. Among them: semiconductor design – 6.6%, semiconductor manufacturing – 1.8%, semiconductor packaging – 3.9%, semiconductor materials – 3.3%, semiconductor equipment – 4.3%, power semiconductor – 9.8%—— The semiconductor sector fell more this week. We think the reasons are mainly the following two points: first, the market has always been worried about the prosperity of the industry, and second, the epidemic situation in Shanghai has intensified. At present, static management is implemented in the whole city of Shanghai. According to our industrial research, the specific impact of each link is as follows: 1) for the manufacturing link and sealing and testing link, closed-loop management is implemented at present (the factory provides buses for indirect delivery between the factory and the staff dormitory), and the impact on production and operation is not great temporarily; 2) The first link is the R & D link. Due to the R & D personnel working at home, there is a risk of efficiency reduction. The second is the logistics link. The design company strives to ensure supply through various ways, including ① opening the standby warehouse outside Shanghai, ② the manufacturing link is directly connected with the sealing and testing link, the sealing and testing factory is directly delivered to downstream customers, and ③ the overseas customs declaration link is transferred to Hong Kong in Shanghai. 3) Power semiconductor: it may have an impact on logistics, but on the whole, the production and operation of Q1 companies are normal, and the downstream demand is still high.
Industry news
1) Chinese mainland accounts for only 4% of the global chip market share.
In April 6th, Semiconductor Research Institute ICInsights announced the latest chip Market Research Report. In 2021, the US company occupied 54% of the total sales of the global chip market, including the sum of chip sales of IDM and Fabless manufacturers, 22% in Korea, 9% in China, 9% in Japan, and 4% in Chinese mainland. In the FablessIC field, the United States accounts for 68%, China’s Taiwan 21%, Chinese mainland 9%, Korea 1%, Japan Europe less than 1%. In the IDMIC field, the United States accounts for 47%, South Korea 33%, Japan 8%, Europe 9%, China Taiwan 3%, and Chinese mainland share less than 1%.
2) the revenue of universal crystal Q1 reached 3.6 billion yuan, reaching a new high. Universal crystal, a large semiconductor silicon wafer manufacturer, announced that its revenue in March was NT $5.73 billion (about 1.27 billion yuan), an increase of 7.1% month on month and 0.6% year-on-year; In the first quarter, the total revenue reached NT $16.31 billion (about 3.615 billion yuan), an increase of 3.5% month on month and 10.1% year-on-year; It reached a new high for the second consecutive quarter. Universal crystal said it was optimistic about the future space and believed that the current semiconductor production capacity was still in shortage, the demand for advanced process wafers superimposed on emerging applications continued to expand, the company’s long-term coverage increased and the average sales unit price increased.
Plate tracking
1) MCU: from 4.6 to 4.8, the MCU sector showed differentiation, of which Nations Technologies Inc(300077) + 11%, mainly because it released its 2021 annual report last week, benefiting from the high growth of MCU, deducting + 131% year-on-year Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) -8%, Sino Wealth Electronic Ltd(300327) -1%, Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688018) -8%. We believe that the MCU sector has continued to fluctuate since February, mainly because the market is worried about the prosperity of MCU. Continue to be optimistic about the leader, and continue to achieve high performance growth through product structure adjustment + localization.
2) simulation: from April 6 to April 8, the simulation sector fell across the board, and only Wuxi Etek Microelectronics Co.Ltd(688601) fell slightly (- 2%), mainly because it released 22q1 performance last week, which exceeded expectations. The decline of other targets ranged from 5% to 17%. We believe that the market is mainly worried about the impact of logistics links. Judging from the delivery cycle of large overseas factories we tracked, there is no sign of mitigation at present; In addition, it is learned from the industrial research that at present, the prosperity of some medium and low-end consumption fields has loosened, while other fields still maintain prosperity. We continue to be optimistic about manufacturers with first mover advantage, continue to carry out domestic substitution, and strive for more capacity when the capacity end is loose.
3) storage: from April 6 to April 8, there was differentiation in the storage sector, and Puya Semiconductor (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688766) continued to rise by + 11%, mainly due to the company’s announcement on the progress of new products, the delivery of norflash and EEPROM to overseas major customers, and the improvement of etox process structure. Dongxin shares rose 2%, while other companies fell 2% ~ 13%.
4) silicon wafers: during the week of 4.6-4.8, the semiconductor silicon material sector differentiated, in which National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) -u rose by 1.25%, Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) fell by 0.19%, Hangzhou Lion Electronics Co.Ltd(605358) fell by 1.95%, Thinkon Semiconductor Jinzhou Corp(688233) fell by 2.13%, and Zhejiang Mtcn Technology Co.Ltd(003026) fell by 6.39%. The net profit of the silicon wafer industry is expected to rebound by RMB 18.38-18.32 billion on Friday, which is expected to be higher than that of the parent wafer industry on a year-on-year basis. We expect that semiconductor materials have post cyclical properties. As the largest market segment of semiconductor manufacturing materials, silicon wafer is booming at present, and domestic manufacturers will usher in rapid performance development.
5) photoresist: from 4.6 to 4.8, photoresist related targets fell during the week, including Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) fell 9.77%, Crystal Clear Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300655) fell 9.26%, Shanghai Sinyang Semiconductor Materials Co.Ltd(300236) fell 7.71%, Red Avenue New Materials Group Co.Ltd(603650) fell 7.06%, Hmt(Xiamen)New Technical Materials Co.Ltd(603306) fell 5.81%, Jiangsu Nata Opto-Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300346) fell 4.98%. We believe that the shock of photoresist sector is mainly due to the outbreak of the epidemic in Shanghai and the market’s concern about the supply chain. However, the disturbance of short-term external factors does not change the high scenery of domestic photoresist, and domestic substitution is still the main theme of this year.
6) equipment: during the week of 4.6-4.8, the equipment sector also closed down, with an overall decline of 4.2%. Recently, the attention of the market has shifted to real estate, finance and other sectors, and growth stocks such as equipment and power sectors continued to decline. That week, equipment leaders such as applied materials and Kelei issued a reminder that due to the shortage of parts and components, the equipment transaction may be extended again, and the supply tension of the equipment sector will continue. Since 20h2 global Fabs gradually entered the stage of capacity expansion, the global equipment demand has continued to be high, and we are optimistic about the growth space of the equipment sector. The localization of equipment from the perspective of supply chain security will bring considerable growth space to domestic equipment manufacturers.
7) power: in the week of 4.6-4.8, the power sector continued to fall, and the windigbt index fell 4.6%. The new energy sector continued to callback, dragging down the power sector: the wind photovoltaic index fell 5.2% and the new energy index fell 4.5% that week. At the level of individual stocks, the main companies fell across the board, and Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) , Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) with high attention in the early stage and benefiting from the prosperity of photovoltaic IGBT fell deeply. That week, Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) released its 2021 annual report on the last trading day, closing up 0.51%, ending the decline. Looking forward to 4.11-4.15, China power semiconductor company has no annual report and other important announcements. However, Wenmao and TSMC in the upstream OEM link will release the quarterly performance briefing this week to provide new guidance for the prosperity and trend of power and even semiconductors.
In the dimension of prolonging the time, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic and the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2022 are still expected to be strong. We are optimistic about the growth opportunities under the domestic substitution of power manufacturers.
Important announcement
1) Amlogic (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688099) : release the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022. It is estimated that the operating revenue of 22q1 will be about RMB 148 million, with a year-on-year increase of about 59.29%. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22q1 is about 270 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 201.80%. It is expected that the net profit of non parent company deduction in 22q1 will be about 256 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 226.88%.
2) Hangzhou Lion Electronics Co.Ltd(605358) : the announcement of performance increase in the first quarter of 2022 was issued. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 22q1 will be 215 million yuan to 245 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 183.66% to 223.24%. It is estimated that the net profit deducted from non parent company is RMB 212 million to RMB 242 million, with a year-on-year increase of 220.50% to 265.85%.
3) Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) : the company released its 2021 annual report that week. The annual revenue was 1.7 billion yuan, yoy + 77%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 398 million yuan, yoy + 120%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 378 million yuan, YoY + 143%. The three indicators were consistent with the previous performance express. It is estimated that 21q4 company achieved revenue of 510 million yuan, QoQ +%, yoy + 73%, net profit attributable to parent company of 130 million yuan in the quarter, QoQ + 16%, yoy + 179%, deducting net profit attributable to non parent company of 126 million yuan, QoQ + 15%, yoy + 215%. The high growth of the company’s performance is mainly due to the large volume of new energy business. In 21 years, the business revenue was 570 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 166%.
3) TSMC: the company announced 22q1 results. In the first quarter, the company’s net revenue was NT $491076 billion (about US $16.97 billion), an increase of 35.5% year-on-year, higher than NT $438188 billion in the fourth quarter of last year, another record high in single quarter revenue. Among them, the net revenue in March was NT $171967 billion, an increase of 17.0% month on month and 33.2% year-on-year, the second highest monthly revenue in history.
Investment suggestions: continuing to recommend a series of recommendations for the investment recommendations: the continued recommendation of the ‘ Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) 35.
Risk tips: the demand is less than expected, the constraints of capacity bottlenecks, the technological progress of mainland manufacturers is less than expected, the Sino US trade friction is intensified, and the information used in the research report is not updated in time.
