Weekly view:
Three places announced the annual land supply plan: 1) on April 6, Fuzhou announced that it plans to supply 357.89 hectares of urban residential land and 25 hectares of rental housing land in 2022; 2) On April 6, Hangzhou announced that it plans to supply 110355 hectares of residential land in 2022, including 128.4 hectares of affordable rental housing; 3) The scale of residential land for lease in Wuhan was announced on June 2023, with a total area of 346 mu for housing supply.
The supply of homestead in the three provincial capitals includes some rental housing land. Fuzhou, Hangzhou and Wuhan are located in South China, East China and central China respectively. As a supplement to commercial housing, affordable rental housing can increase the diversification of housing supply and alleviate the pressure of insufficient supply; On the other hand, indemnificatory rental housing is conducive to revitalizing the stock of housing in the market and benefiting high-quality real estate enterprises that plan the agent construction business and urban renewal business in advance.
The national Standing Committee emphasized maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity: on April 6, the executive meeting of the State Council pointed out that we should strengthen the implementation of prudent monetary policy and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity. We will study and adopt financial measures to support consumption and effective investment, improve the level of financial services for new citizens, and optimize affordable housing financial services.
Under the background of continuous downward sales, the State Council stressed the robustness of monetary policy, which released a positive signal and helped to meet the reasonable housing needs of home buyers. We believe that in order to realize the reversal of the bottom of the city’s scene, there is room for further reduction of the 5-year LPR on the currency side.
We believe that there is no substantial improvement in the current total data, and the regulation policy is still dominated by a loose rhythm. At the same time, the marginal improvement of the operation quality and sales scale of some high-quality enterprises is obvious. Under this environment, we continue to recommend three main lines: 1) the dilemma reversal enterprises that benefit from the optimization of centralized land supply policy in the early stage: China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ; 2) Leading real estate enterprises under the continuous improvement of competition pattern: Green City China, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) ; 3) High rated steady operation private enterprises: Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Xuhui holding group.
Industry tracking
Sales review (04.02-04.08): the total transaction area of 33 key monitoring cities was 1.803 million square meters, down 43.2% from last week; In 2022, a total of 42.358 million square meters were sold, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 41.8%. Among them, the first tier cities sold 240000 square meters, down 32.6% from last week. In 2022, a total of 8.118 million square meters were sold, down 33.2% year-on-year; Second tier cities sold 1.085 million square meters, down 42.6% from last week, and 20.945 million square meters in 2022, down 29% year-on-year; The third tier cities sold 479000 square meters, down 48.6% from last week. In 2022, a total of 13295000 square meters were sold, down 57.3% year-on-year.
Land supply (03.28-04.03): the planned construction area of land and homestead supply in Baicheng is 11.61 million m2. In 2022, the cumulative supply of planned construction area is 104.68 million m2, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 49%, and the supply-demand ratio is 1.63. In terms of land listing price, the average listing floor price of land supplied by Baicheng is 8985 yuan / m2, and the average listing price in recent four weeks is 7686 yuan / m2, an increase of 11.2% month on month and 19.4% year-on-year.
Land transaction (03.28-04.03): the planned construction area of residential land in Baicheng is 3.47 million m3, with a cumulative transaction of 64.28 million m2 in 2022, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 66.1%. In terms of land transaction floor price and premium rate, the average transaction floor price of residential land in Baicheng was 6581 yuan / m2, a month on month decrease of 0.1%, a year-on-year increase of 85.3%, and the overall premium rate was 1.5%. In 2022, the average floor price was 4263 yuan / m2, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%, and the premium rate was 3.4%, a decrease of 14.5 percentage points compared with the same period last year.
Risk warning event: the financing environment is tighter than expected; The regulatory policy was tightened more than expected.
