[Key words this week]: affected by the epidemic, new energy vehicle enterprises have stopped production; Overseas lithium resources are accelerating, and wodgina plans to resume the second production line China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) the listing price was flat in April;
Market review: the game between the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain has intensified significantly, and the increase of commodities has slowed down: 1) the procurement of lithium and downstream material plants has slowed down, the output at the supply end has gradually increased, and the increase of lithium price has slowed down. This week, China’s spot price of lithium carbonate and the price of lithium concentrate have remained stable; 2) Rare earth: downstream enterprises mainly consumed inventory, and the purchase demand weakened. The quotation of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China fell by 8.2% to 895000 yuan / ton; In terms of medium and heavy rare earths, the quotation of dysprosium oxide decreased by 8.5%, and the quotation of terbium oxide decreased by 3.7%; 3) The quotations of cobalt, MB cobalt (standard grade) and MB cobalt (alloy grade) increased by 0.9% and 0.5% month on month respectively; 4) Nickel: under the short-term capital game, nickel price fluctuation increased, and LME nickel rose 3.82% month on month. 5) Stock market: the overall performance of nonferrous metals index this week was relatively weak. Shenwan nonferrous metals index decreased by 1.05%, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.01%, of which lithium sector decreased by 2.35%; Rare earth permanent magnet sector fell 3.08%.
New energy vehicle industry chain: affected by the epidemic, some auto enterprises have stopped production. Since March, due to the epidemic, Weilai’s supply chain partners in Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places have continued to stop production, which has not been restored yet. Affected by this, Weilai vehicle production has been suspended. In addition, affected by the epidemic, Tesla‘s factory in Shanghai also stopped production.
Lithium: the price of lithium carbonate is stable. 1) On the price side, the game between upstream and downstream enterprises intensified. This week, China’s battery grade lithium carbonate held to 517400 yuan / ton, the quotation of battery grade lithium hydroxide stabilized to 494000 yuan / ton, and the price of lithium concentrate increased by 6.2%. It is expected that the price of lithium concentrate will accelerate. 2) On the inventory side, the inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 0.24% month on month from 4908 to 4920 tons; Lithium hydroxide inventory increased by 24.08% month on month from 901 to 1118 tons. 3) Speed up the development of overseas lithium resources: the first production line (250000 tons) of wodgina is planned to resume production in May 2022, and the second production line (250000 tons) is expected to resume production in July 2022. Whether to restart the third production line and the construction of a new production line will be evaluated at the end of 22. MT Marion predicts that after the completion of technical transformation in 2022, the total capacity will increase by about 25000 tons of LCE (the original plan was to increase by about 10 Yihua Healthcare Co.Ltd(000150) 00 tons of LCE).
Rare earth permanent magnet: reshaping the industry pattern. 1) On the spot side, affected by the epidemic, the terminal orders were insufficient and the market price was unstable, resulting in strong wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream. The purchase of orders was delayed, and the magnetic material enterprises further reduced the inventory. The quotation of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China fell by 8.2% to 895000 yuan / ton; In terms of medium and heavy rare earths, the quotation of dysprosium oxide decreased by 8.5% and terbium oxide decreased by 3.7%. 2) On the supply side, Myanmar is still closed, and the consumption inventory of medium and heavy rare earths is dominated. The operating rate of praseodymium and neodymium oxide enterprises has not changed significantly, and the weekly output is basically the same. 3) On the inventory side, the inventory of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased from 3700 to 3550 tons, down 1.61% month on month.
Cobalt: both supply and demand are weak, and the price continues to rise. This week, the quotation of MB cobalt (standard grade) and MB cobalt (alloy grade) increased by 0.9% and 0.5% month on month respectively. Affected by the high price, there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream market of electrolytic cobalt. The high fluctuation of nickel price also has an impact on the demand for ternary materials, and the downstream is dominated by rigid demand procurement; The problem of supply side logistics and transportation has not been alleviated. The epidemic in Shanghai has further exacerbated the shortage of intermediate goods supply, and the cobalt inventory has remained at a very low level, showing a weak situation of both supply and demand.
Nickel: in the short term, under the capital game, the fluctuation of nickel price increases; In the long run, nickel prices return to fundamentals. Affected by the epidemic, the spot consumption of nickel is blocked, and the market transaction may stagnate in the short term. LME nickel closed at US $33950 / ton this week, up 3.82% month on month.
Copper foil: affected by downstream demand this week, the processing fee of 6 and 8 micron lithium battery copper foil was reduced by about 500 yuan.
Maintain “investment” rating. The upstream raw materials of new energy, such as rare earth magnetic materials, lithium cobalt copper foil, aluminum foil, etc., may be weak in both supply and demand in a short time due to epidemic, logistics and other factors, but the general direction of the medium and long-term three-year boom upward cycle will not change, and the direction of the industrial boom is also the most clear. The core standard of the core standard is the following: followingthe following of the following: followingthe following of the following: 002 ” ;, Yantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(300224) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , Earth-Panda Advanced Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(688077) , Jiangsu Dingsheng New Material Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603876) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , etc.
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuation, industrial policy change risk, epidemic aggravation risk, new energy vehicle sales less than expected risk, and the premise assumption of supply and demand calculation less than expected risk.
