Energy storage: 1. Our thoughts on independent energy storage are as follows:
(1) in terms of quantity, the scale of independent energy storage has expanded rapidly and become an important part of energy storage construction: at the end of 2021, five demonstration projects of shared energy storage power stations in Shandong were completed, with a total scale of 1GWh; According to Beijing Centergate Technologies (Holding) Co.Ltd(000931) energy storage industry technology alliance, the total scale of independent energy storage power stations planned, put into operation and under construction in 2021 exceeded 17gw / 34gwh, involving more than 20 provinces and regions.
(2) in terms of business model, independent energy storage is better than new energy distribution and construction energy storage, but it still needs to be further expanded and completed, which will greatly affect the progress of China's installed capacity of energy storage. At present, Shandong has started the attempt of independent energy storage power station to enter the spot market, and its income needs to be continuously paid attention to:
Taking Shandong Province as an example, a) before the spot market reform, the income of independent energy storage came from three parts: auxiliary service + lease fee + priority power generation reward. The kWh price lost in the operating cost was valley power price, and the income of new energy allocation came from two parts: auxiliary service + lease fee. The kWh price lost in the operating cost was the online price of new energy. According to the data of Shandong Electric Power Engineering Consulting Institute, under this mode, The IRR of independent energy storage reaches 10.71%, and the IRR of new energy configuration energy storage is -0.08%.
B) in March 2022, four independent energy storage power stations in Shandong Province entered the spot market. At this time, the income of independent energy storage comes from three parts: electricity price difference + lease fee + capacity electricity price coefficient. The kWh price lost in the operating cost is node electricity price at the charging time + fund surcharge + transmission and distribution electricity price + capacity compensation electricity price. The income of new energy distribution and storage is only lease fee. Focus on two aspects: in terms of policy, whether the charging price will reduce the transmission and distribution price and fund surcharge and change to the mode of paying only the node price; In terms of price difference, the peak valley price difference of Shandong power generation side can be continuously observed to calculate the economy of independent energy storage.
2. Valuation: under the high growth rate of the industry, the valuation of the sector has returned to a reasonable range. With the high cost of raw materials, we expect the global energy storage industry to maintain a growth rate of more than 100% in 2022. Starting from the phased high point at the end of November 2021, as of April 8, the whole energy storage sector has retreated by about 30%. After the correction at this stage, the valuation of the whole sector has returned to a reasonable range. The anchor of future energy storage valuation is mainly based on three points: (1) valuation of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) lithium battery faucet; (2) Valuation of inverter faucet; (3) The actual growth rate of energy storage industry needs to be tracked continuously. According to our prediction, corresponding to the closing price on April 8, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 2022 / 2023 PE is 39 / 28 times 3 Chongqing Sansheng Industrial Co.Ltd(002742) 022 / 2023 PE is 37 / 28 times.
3. Investment: Battery link: recommend Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , pay attention to Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) ; PCs field: recommend Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) , Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) , focus on Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ; System integration field: focus on Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) ; Fire protection and heat management: focus on Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) , Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) , Guoanda Co.Ltd(300902) , Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co.Ltd(300499) , Sanhe Tongfei Refrigeration Co.Ltd(300990) .
Power grid: 1. Valuation: the valuation center has gradually callback, and has gradually approached the relatively reasonable allocation space. From November to December 2021, the market's expectations for power grid investment rose, giving the new infrastructure sector of power grid more growth attributes, raising the PE level of the sector. After that, due to the choice under the background of overseas interest rate hike and China's steady growth, the valuation center of the new infrastructure sector of the power grid gradually corrected. According to the unanimous expectation of wind, corresponding to the closing price on April 8, Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) 2022 PE is 24 times.
2. Investment: in the context of accelerating the construction of a new power system, the power grid investment increased during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and there were great opportunities for structural investment in some fields. Suggestions: 1) UHV and Gil: Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , Jiangsu Ankura Smart Transmission Engineering Technology Co.Ltd(300617) ; 2) Energy storage at grid side: Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) , China Southern Power Grid technology, Shaanxi Baoguang Vacuum Electronic Apparatus Co.Ltd(600379) , Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co.Ltd(002169) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) ; 3) Smart meter: Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co.Ltd(300360) , Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Hexing Electrical Co.Ltd(603556) , Beijing Yupont Electric Power Technology Co.Ltd(688597) ; 4) Energy saving transformer: Yunlu shares, Advanced Technology & Materials Co.Ltd(000969) , Jiangsu Yangdian Science & Technology Co.Ltd(301012) , State Grid Yingda Co.Ltd(600517) ; 5) Intelligent monitoring and maintenance of power grid: Hangzhou Kelin Electric Co.Ltd(688611) , Zhiyang Innovation Technology Co.Ltd(688191) , Hangzhou Shenhao Technology Co.Ltd(300853) , Yijiahe Technology Co.Ltd(603666) , China Southern Power Grid technology.
Risk tips:
The cost reduction of energy storage is less than the expected risk; The strength of energy storage policy support is less than expected; The progress of market-oriented reform of power trading is less than the expected risk; The investment of State Grid is lower than the expected risk.
