Report guide
Since March, there has been a large-scale recurrence of the epidemic in many places in China. Production, consumption and logistics in Shanghai, Jilin Province and Jiangsu and Zhejiang have been impacted to varying degrees, exceeding expectations. The epidemic has an impact on the demand and supply of the current automobile industry. Under the triple influence of the epidemic, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and raw materials, it is expected that the 22q2 automobile sector will be under pressure. After May, with the dynamic clearing of the epidemic, the enterprises will resume normal operation, the overseas situation will gradually become clear, the cost pressure will slow down, the industry fundamentals will return to the upward channel, the rhythm will move backward, but the upward trend will not change!
Key investment points
Market Review
The auto sector fell 2.62%, the CSI 300 index fell 1.06% in the same period, and the auto industry lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 1.56 percentage points. From the sector ranking, the auto industry ranked 22nd among the 31 sectors of Shenwan last week, at the middle and lower level compared with other industries. The new energy vehicle index fell 4.41%. Among the sub sectors, passenger vehicles rose 0.80% this week, and commercial trucks / commercial buses / auto parts / Auto Services fell 3.15% / 3.57% / 4.54% / 2.69%.
Market hot spot
Since March, affected by the epidemic, many car companies have stopped production. In March, the epidemic continued to spread in Shanghai and Jilin. In March, Tesla Shanghai stopped production twice in a row. Many automobile enterprises of FAW and SAIC stopped production one after another. On April 9, Weilai automobile announced that it would stop production.
The tide of rising prices of new energy vehicles continued to spread. Jihu plans to raise the price from May 1, and the price of Lingke hybrid car will rise by 2 Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) 0 yuan. Mercedes Benz fuel vehicles also began to raise prices.
This week's view: the inflection point is not clear, and the risk of Q2 mainly comes from the epidemic
Since March, there has been a large-scale recurrence of the epidemic in many places in China. Production, consumption and logistics in Shanghai, Jilin Province and Jiangsu and Zhejiang have been impacted to varying degrees, exceeding expectations. Shanghai and Jilin Province are major provinces (cities) of China's automobile industry. Taking 2021 as an example, the national automobile output in 2021 was 26.528 million, the output of Shanghai was 2.83 million, and the output of Jilin Province was 2.42 million, accounting for about 20% in total. The automobile enterprises covered by the two places include FAW, SAIC and Tesla.
The epidemic has an impact on the demand and supply of the current automobile industry:
Supply side: ① in the areas with serious epidemic, the relevant main engine factories stopped production and closed-loop management, and the production rhythm was suspended and slowed down significantly. Tesla, Volkswagen, BMW, GM and other auto enterprises have stopped production one after another. In the short term, auto enterprises with production capacity in Jilin and Shanghai are most affected, and the corresponding supply chain is also affected. ② Due to industrial clusters, Jilin Province
There was a shortage crisis in some parts supply chains around Shanghai, which affected the whole vehicle production in non epidemic areas. ③ Strict logistics control and reduced logistics efficiency have hindered the delivery of suppliers in the supply chain.
To sum up, the supply of the automobile industry chain has been greatly affected under the repeated epidemic than expected. Although the main engine manufacturers have parts inventory, if Shanghai remains static for more than a week, the impact on the supply level may further spread
Demand side: strict control, limited travel and limited consumption scenarios. However, without considering the impact of the epidemic on the economy, the impact of the epidemic on the demand side will only delay the demand, and the demand will not disappear. At the same time, the normalization of the epidemic is expected to drive the demand for private cars.
The rhythm is disturbed and the direction remains unchanged. The medium and long-term rise of domestic products and electric intelligence will still be the most certain investment opportunities in the next decade. Under the triple influence of the epidemic, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and raw materials, it is expected that the 22q2 automobile sector will be under pressure. After May, with the dynamic clearing of the epidemic, enterprises will resume normal operation, the overseas situation will gradually become clear, the cost pressure will slow down, the industry fundamentals will return to the upward channel, the rhythm will move backward, but the upward trend will not change. The rise of domestic products and electric intelligence will still be the most certain investment opportunities in the next decade. Focus on the whole car, and recommend Xiaopeng Auto; Most of the parts and components are most likely to be focused on driving intelligence ( Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) 2 etc.) and localization of passenger car seats ( Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) etc.).
Investment strategy and key recommendations
In the field of complete vehicles, the independent rise in 2022 will continue to be deduced, which is mainly driven by the following three factors: 1) the mainstream price of pure electricity has been improved and the models have been further enriched; 2) 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 yuan of hybrid fuel market; 3) With the acceleration of intelligence, the independent advantage is more obvious. We believe that the market share of new forces + Tesla + head is expected to continue to increase this year. In the field of parts and components, with the change of the pattern of downstream main engine plants, the new forces and the independent market share of the head will continue to increase. The accelerated iteration of models in the era of electric intelligence has greatly improved the requirements of car enterprises for the response service efficiency of parts and components enterprises. The previously solidified zero adjustment relationship is expected to be broken, the domestic parts and components industry chain rises with the trend, and the accelerated promotion of electric intelligence has given birth to a large number of value-added parts and new industrial trends, We are optimistic about the rise of domestic products and electric intelligence, and continue to focus on four subdivided areas: integrated die casting, intelligent driving, intelligent cockpit and localization of passenger car seats.
Passenger cars: mainly recommend Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely Automobile (H); It is suggested to pay attention to ideal, Xiaopeng and Weilai.
Parts and components of the '' Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) tesla industrial chain), China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) (testing), Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) (lightweight & Tesla supply chain), etc., focusing on Foryou Corporation(002906) (HUD) Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension), Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) (lightweight), Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , etc.
Risk tips
Chip supply is lower than expected; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The price of raw materials has risen sharply.
