Key investment points
This week’s view:
Plate shock adjustment is still in the bottom range, and actively grasp the investment window period of the first quarterly report. This week, the CSI 300 fell 1.06%, and the pharmaceutical and biological industry fell 3.33%, ranking 23rd among 31 primary sub industries. This week, the pharmaceutical sector fluctuated and adjusted, mainly due to the strong epidemic situation in the early stage, and the correction of related stocks and traditional Chinese medicine sector. At present, the sector is still at the bottom, with good configuration value. At the same time, we believe that the short-term focus will return to the performance of the first quarterly report of the annual report, focusing on the subdivided areas of continuous high growth or improvement of Q1 performance. In the near near term, multiple companies have revealed a quarterly operating data from a quarter of a quarterly operating report in the near near term, and a number of companies have recently released operating data from a quarter of a quarterly operating data, Hangzhou Alltest Biotech Co.Ltd(688606) (817 million yuan, + 142.63%) Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) (1.783-1.970 billion yuan, + 90% ~ 110%) achieved rapid growth. During the adjustment, it is suggested to focus on high-quality stocks with strong performance, and actively pay attention to fine molecular industries and key companies that may exceed expectations in Q1, such as cdmo / cro, vaccine, API, etc.
AACR conference kicked off and domestic innovative drugs achieved fruitful results again. The annual meeting of the American Association for cancer research (AACR) in 2022 was held from April 8 to 13, central time, with the participation of Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Baiji Shenzhou, Yasheng pharmaceutical, Deqi pharmaceutical and other Chinese innovative drug companies. Among them, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) will publish the data of PD1 monoclonal antibody trepril for adjuvant treatment of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, and update the data of first-line nasopharyngeal carcinoma treatment. 2. Baiji Shenzhou will update the phase III research data of tirelizhu in the treatment of lung cancer and the trial data of multiple antitumor drugs. 3. The preliminary data of cdpd-129 and ak1-131 will be released. The conference will present the experimental results of a variety of new targets and new mechanism drugs. In the post-pd-1 era, a new generation of antitumor drugs are being developed rapidly. We pay attention to innovative pharmaceutical enterprises with strong innovation strength and strong R & D and clinical capabilities. We recommend Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Baiji Shenzhou, kangfang biology, etc.
The epidemic prevention and control has been upgraded again, the vaccination has been promoted in an orderly manner, and the valuation of the vaccine sector has been adjusted in place. It is suggested to make a positive layout. 1) The strengthening needle was promoted in an orderly manner, and the strengthening plan was optimized. As of March 31, 2022, about 695 million people have completed booster vaccination (the coverage rate of booster vaccination has reached about 49%, source: china.com). On February 26, Zhifei’s recombinant protein and Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) adenovirus were approved for heterologous enhancement, while Kangtai’s inactivation was used for homologous enhancement, which is expected to thicken the performance orders of relevant companies. In addition, many studies have shown that the enhancement of mRNA vaccine on the basis of 2-shot inactivation can significantly improve the antibody level. It is suggested to pay attention to Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) . 2) Covid-19 vaccine related companies still have considerable performance when going to sea in multiple ways. There is still a large covid-19 vaccine gap overseas. The enhanced vaccination rate in low – and middle-income countries is only 0-4.43%, and the export demand is still strong. Chinese vaccine companies have exported covid-19 vaccine through whopq certification, transnational cooperation, remote registration and other channels. Among them, listed vaccine enterprises such as Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) , Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , clover biology have applied for whopq certification and entered the later stage. It is expected to have phased results in the first half of 2022. 3) China’s self funded vaccine market has accelerated, and the performance of head enterprises driven by heavy varieties is expected to take off. Each vaccine head enterprise has a large amount of heavy varieties or is about to be launched. With the increase of vaccination awareness under covid-19 epidemic, we expect the vaccination rate of large varieties to continue to increase and gradually approach the level of developed countries. Continue to highlight Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Hualan Biological Engineering Inc(002007) , Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) .
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One week market dynamics: Based on the analysis of the pharmaceutical sector from the beginning of 2022 to the present, the yield of the pharmaceutical sector is – 15.1%, the yield of CSI 300 in the same period is – 14.4%, and the yield of the pharmaceutical sector is 0.7% lower than that of CSI 300. This week, the CSI 300 fell by 1.06%, and the pharmaceutical and biological industry fell by 3.33%, ranking 23rd among the 31 primary sub industries. All sub sectors fell, of which the biological products fell the least, at – 1.06%, and the pharmaceutical business fell the most, at – 6.53%. Based on the 2022 profit forecast valuation, the current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is 27.61 times PE, the P / E ratio of all A-Shares (excluding the financial sector) is about 23.93 times PE, and the premium rate of the pharmaceutical sector relative to all A-Shares (excluding the financial sector) is 15.41%. Calculated by TTM valuation method, the current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is 28.0 times PE, which is lower than the historical average (37.2 times PE), and the premium rate relative to all A-Shares (excluding the financial sector) is 41%.
Risk warning: the risk of policy disturbance, drug quality problems, and the risk of delayed information or untimely update of the public data used in the research report.
