Sector market review
This week (04 / 04-04 / 08), the transportation index fell 1.2%, the CSI 300 index fell 1.1%, underperformed the market by 0.1%, ranking 13 / 29. Among the transportation sub sectors, the highway sector increased the most (1.4%), and the shipping sector decreased the most (- 5.5%).
Industry perspective
Express delivery: since early March, the epidemic has been repeated in many parts of the country, some transit centers and outlets have been shut down, express delivery in many places has been interrupted periodically, and delivery delays and suspension of delivery have also occurred on some e-commerce platforms, which has a great impact on the express service. The express business volume is expected to decline. The National Post Office expects that the express business volume in March is expected to decline by 2.5% year-on-year, and the express business revenue is expected to decline by 4.4% year-on-year. The industry entered the off-season in March, and the price side remained stable. The performance of express delivery enterprises has entered the cashing period. Yuantong released the main business data from January to February 2022, with the completion of express business of 2.297 billion tickets, a year-on-year increase of 27.81%; The operating revenue was about 7.624 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.28%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 545 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 186.36% S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) business strategy adjustment pays more attention to quality growth, the impact of capacity cycle gradually subsides, actively optimizes product structure and customer structure, lean cost control, Kerry Logistics promotes international business development, and Ezhou airport lays the foundation for future development; With strong certainty in performance restoration, 21q4 made a profit of 2.471 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.01%, deducting non net profit of 1.501 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.07%. SF intends to repurchase some of the company’s shares for employee stock ownership plan or equity incentive, and the number of shares repurchased accounts for 0.50% of the company’s current total share capital.
Logistics: there is a high threshold in the field of chemical logistics. After the accidents of Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) , Xiangshui and other accidents, the supervision becomes stricter, which limits the supply of the industry, and the demand side still increases every year. The performance growth of leading chemical logistics enterprises is highly uncertain Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) released the 2021 annual report and realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 432 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 50%. It is expected to maintain a high growth in the next two years. The upgrading of manufacturing industry increases the demand for tob productive supply chain logistics. Enterprises that pay attention to system investment and strong management will win and pay attention to Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) .
Airports: China’s epidemic continues, and passenger flow during the Qingming holiday has decreased by 87% year-on-year. The epidemic is still spreading in many places this week, inhibiting the recovery of aviation demand. According to the Ministry of transport, civil aviation is expected to send 562000 passengers during the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday (April 3-April 5) in 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 87% and 54% compared with the same period in 2020. Since April 5, the fuel surcharge of air tickets on Chinese routes has been raised to 50 yuan or 100 yuan. The demand has not yet recovered, or it is difficult to effectively transmit the pressure of oil prices. According to the 2021 annual report released by the three major airlines, Air China Limited(601111) 2021 achieved a revenue of 74.532 billion yuan, an increase of 7% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of -16.642 billion yuan, a decrease of 16% year-on-year China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) in 2021, the revenue was 67.127 billion yuan, an increase of 14% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was – 12.214 billion yuan, a decrease of 3% year-on-year China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) in 2021, the revenue was 101644 billion yuan, an increase of 10% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was -12.103 billion yuan, a decrease of 12% year-on-year China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) released the 2021 annual report. In 2021, the revenue was 3.967 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was – 99 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 116%. In the short term, the epidemic situation in China is still continuing, and the aviation department will reproduce large losses in the first quarter; At the same time, the research and development of covid-19 oral drugs will strengthen the covid-19 prevention and control system and help production and life return to normal. After the impact of the epidemic is eliminated, the airport operation of AVIC will be significantly improved and the investment value of the sector will be highlighted. Air China Limited(601111) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) .
Shipping: centralized transportation: the CCFI index was 311775 points, down 2.72% month on month and up 67% year on year; The SCFI index was 426366 points, down 2.0% month on month and up 65% year-on-year. Oil transportation: the crude oil transportation index BDTI closed at 167700, up 27% month on month and 167% year on year. The refined oil transportation index bcti closed at 898.00, down 2.1% month on month and 56% year on year.
Risk tips
The risk of sharp rise in oil prices, the risk of devaluation of RMB exchange rate and the risk of price war exceeding expectations
