Core view
Under the influence of repeated epidemics and rising raw material prices again, the valuation of home appliance sector continues to be under pressure and has fallen to a historically low level. However, on the sales side, we have seen signs of recovery of air conditioners and small household appliances from January to February. Integrated stoves and intelligent projection have maintained a high boom, and the average sales price has also continued to rise. In the follow-up, with the impact of the epidemic and the improvement of cost side disturbance, the improvement of demand and profit elasticity are worth looking forward to.
White electricity: the domestic sales volume decreased and the price increased, and the export boom maintained. From January to February 2022, the growth rate of air conditioning sales was 0.8%, of which domestic and foreign sales were – 4.4% and + 4.7% respectively; The growth rate of refrigerator sales was – 3.4%, of which domestic and foreign sales were + 0.5% and – 7.2% respectively; The growth rate of washing machine sales was – 4.4%, of which domestic and foreign sales were – 3.2% and – 6.6% respectively. In terms of price, according to the data of ovicloud, in the first 14 weeks of 2022, the average price of air conditioner Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) is + 9.4% / + 10.0% respectively, the average price of refrigerator Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) is – 1.0% / + 15.7% respectively, and the average price of washing machine Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) is + 3.9% / + 11.5% respectively. The price rise trend of white electricity has continued. Considering that the Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) pattern of white electricity industry is relatively stable, and the upgrading of industrial structure under the leadership of leaders continues to promote, it is expected to drive the continuous repair of profitability. It is suggested to actively pay attention to the progress of demand recovery. Core recommendations: Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) .
Kitchen electricity: the integrated stove continues the high boom, and the leading multi-dimensional attack. Affected by the real estate, the domestic sales performance of traditional kitchen appliances is still under pressure, and the penetration rate of emerging category integrated stoves has increased rapidly driven by product promotion and channel expansion. In the first 14 weeks of 2022, the growth rate of range hood Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) sales was + 5.2% / – 15.5%, gas stove Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) sales was – 0.2% / – 13.9%, integrated stove Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) sales was + 32.8% / + 17.5%, dishwasher Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) sales was + 6.7% / + 22.0%. In terms of cost, kitchen appliances are mainly made of sectors and other steel materials, and the cost rise is relatively limited. The kitchen appliance head enterprises are positioned at the high end, and the price adjustment ability is relatively strong. The head enterprises are expected to maintain strong profitability, but it is expected that the integrated stove enterprises will strengthen the cost investment. Core recommendations: Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) , Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) , Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) .
Small household appliances: the traditional small electricity has returned to growth, and the leading performance of emerging household appliances is strong. With the base number returning to normal, the small household appliance industry as a whole has shown signs of recovery. According to our sales tracking of six major brands of small household appliances, the total sales scale of major brands of small household appliances increased by 10.5% year-on-year from January to March, but declined in March due to the impact of the epidemic. Emerging household appliances are still in the growth stage. Under the iteration of product upgrading, the ability to solve the pain points of consumers has been improved, driving the rapid growth of the scale of the industry. According to the tracking data of Amoy system and jd.com platform, from January to March 2022, the sales of intelligent projection increased by 24.7%, the sales of sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) increased by 21.0%, the sales of floor washer increased by 118.5% and the sales of local massager jd.com platform increased by 39.7%. Core recommendations: Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) , Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) , Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) , Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) .
Key data tracking: market performance: the monthly relative income of household appliances in March was – 4.66%. Raw materials: copper and aluminum prices in LME3 months in March were + 3.96% and + 2.10% month on month respectively, and copper and aluminum prices fluctuated at a high level; Cold rolled sheet prices stabilized and rebounded after falling from the high level, with a month on month increase of + 0.9%. Container transportation index: West America / East America / European line – 5.52%, + 1.58%, – 6.63% month on month in March respectively; Capital flow: in March, Midea / Gree / Haier lugutong’s shareholding ratio was + 0.26%, – 0.96%, – 0.17% month on month.
Suggestions on core investment portfolio: white power recommends Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , efficiency improvement and continuous promotion of channel reform; Kitchen electricity recommends high growth and strong incentive integrated stove leader Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) , and second-line leader of all-round improvement Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) ; Smart projection faucet recommended for small household appliances Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) .
Risk warning: the epidemic situation leads to fluctuations in production and marketing; Intensified market competition; The price of raw materials has risen sharply
