Core view
Industry analysis: the growth rate of scale slows down, the differentiation trend is becoming more and more obvious, and the channels and categories tend to be diversified. In 2020, the scale of China's customized home market reached 381.1 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 17.8% from 2016 to 2020. The growth rate has slowed down in recent years. The competition pattern is scattered. In 2018, CR3 was 8.8% and Cr5 was 10.3%; In 2019, the Cr5 of customized cabinets was 16.0%; Custom wardrobe Cr5 is 35.0%. The customized home furnishing industry attaches great importance to channels. In the future, with the expansion of categories, the layout of bulk channels and packaged business, the leading competitiveness will become more and more obvious, and the industry concentration is expected to be further improved.
Development trend: power transformation, channel reform and product upgrading. At present, the customization industry presents the following three major trends: 1) the driving force of the industry has shifted from real estate cycle to demand driven. The base of stock houses at the retail end is huge, new consumers enter, and there is a strong demand for old house renovation. 2) Channel changes bring opportunities for industry integration. Channel changes mainly include: first, with the increase of hardbound house penetration, the rapid development of bulk channels; The second is the opportunity of decoration business. The supply chain of home decoration has begun to integrate, and all participants jointly seize the trillion level Pan home market and front-end traffic of home decoration; Third, the development of online channels, short video and live broadcast as offline business drainage. 3) The environmental protection sector at the product end has been continuously upgraded, and various manufacturers have launched "aldehyde free sector" one after another. At the same time, it has been rapidly promoted through free upgrading and other low-cost ways.
Brand competitiveness: products, channels and brands of leading enterprises are dominant. From a business perspective, product strength is reflected in high-quality materials, aesthetic brand design and diversified product categories. Channel strength reflects the layout of offline dealers, stores and online platforms, as well as the development of bulk and packaged channels. The development, layout and control ability of diversified channels are the key to the company's access to traffic, and there are differences among companies. Brand strength is reflected in the company's popularity, attention and brand reputation. At present, the head brand has absolute advantages in three forces. From the perspective of financial performance, there are large differences in scale. In recent years, companies with good effect of bulk channel development have increased rapidly. At the same time, affected by bulk and packaged business, the profit margin has generally declined and the debt ratio has generally increased.
Risk tips: 1. Repeated epidemic situation; 2. Deterioration of competition; 3. Damaged brand image; 4. Systemic risk. Investment suggestion: grasp the leading allocation opportunity under the trend of industry reform. Under the trend of continuous integration of the home decoration industry and the expansion of traffic entry through bulk, packaged and online channels, the Pan home industry has a broad market scale, increasingly fierce competition and increasingly obvious differentiation trend. We are optimistic about the product power, channel power and brand power of some customized home furnishing enterprises, as well as their growth and profitability. Under the trend of industry reform, competitive enterprises are expected to continuously improve their market share. We mainly recommend Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co.Ltd(300616) , Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) , and suggest paying attention to Guangzhou Holike Creative Home Co.Ltd(603898) , gold medal cabinet.
