Core view
Industry view: independent rise, electric intelligence. Under the influence of the epidemic situation, geopolitics and other comprehensive factors, the global commodity prices have continued to rise, the prices of important raw materials for automobile production such as aluminum, magnesium, lithium, steel, petroleum, rubber and chips have continued to rise, and the costs of complete vehicles and parts have continued to be under pressure. Since February, some complete vehicle enterprises have officially announced price increases. The market is worried that the pressure on the supply side will eventually be transmitted to the demand side, and the recent correction of the automobile sector has been large, We believe that the price trend of raw materials is difficult to predict in the short term, but the trend of electrification and intelligent upgrading of the automotive industry remains unchanged, which is still the main logic of the next 5-10 dimensions. Some parts have fallen to a reasonable valuation level, and the medium and long-term configuration value is prominent. We recommend the rise of independent brands and the intelligent upgrading of automotive electrification. Main line 1: in 2021, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles exceeded 15%, and the key point entered the accelerated penetration. Under the background of the bottom support of three electricity technology, the logic of vehicle production changed. The independent brand surpassed the joint venture in terms of organizational structure, supply chain perfection and business model, and is optimistic about the industrial chain investment opportunities brought by the rise of independent brands for a long time. Main line 2: the core of vehicle electrification is the application of energy flow. With the superposition of multiple factors such as policy, technology and Tesla, new energy vehicles have entered the stage of high-quality development, the product power of demand driven models has been improved, and the technical trend has been upgraded to lithium iron phosphate, 4680 cylinder, multi-in-one electric drive system, vehicle platform high voltage and other multidimensional upgrades. Mainline 3: the core of automotive intelligence is the application of data flow. Incremental parts include: acquisition end – laser radar, millimeter wave radar, camera and other sensors, transmission end – high-speed connector, calculation end – domain controller, application end – air suspension, wire controlled braking and steering, interaction end – HUD, interactive lamp, central control instrument, sky glass, on-board acoustics, etc.
Market resumption: CS auto fell 2.71%, weaker than the CSI 300 index of 1.64pct. This week (2022040420220408), CS cars fell 2.71%, CS passenger cars rose 0.31%, CS commercial vehicles fell 1.82%, CS auto parts fell 5.54%, CS car sales and services fell 1.55%, CS motorcycles and others fell 2.58%, electric vehicle index fell 2.89%, smart car index fell 4.38%, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 4.05% and Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.06%. CS automobile is weaker than the CSI 300 index by 1.64pct and the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.77pct, down 23.24% year to date.
Data tracking: car sales in March decreased by 11% year-on-year, and the penetration rate of new energy is expected to be close to 30% in March. The China Gas Association predicts that the sales volume of the automobile industry in March will be 2.249 million, a year-on-year decrease of 11% and a month on month increase of 29.5%; The Federation of passenger cars preliminarily estimated that the retail sales of passenger cars in March was 1501000, a year-on-year decrease of 15% and a month on month increase of 20%. Recently, several auto companies announced the sales volume of new energy vehicles in March, and it is expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in March is expected to be nearly 30%.
Investment suggestion: be optimistic about electric and intelligent vehicles. Energy end Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) etc; Moving end Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , etc; Interaction end Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , etc; Vehicle end: SAIC, GAC, great wall, Chang’an, Byd Company Limited(002594) etc. It is suggested to pay attention to the industrial chain of lidar, integrated die casting and new energy electric drive system.
Risk tip: Auto chip capacity risk, sales volume downside risk, traditional enterprise reform risk.
