Industry core view:
The further spread of the epidemic in China has affected the repair expectation of the industry to a certain extent, but at the same time, it has also further strengthened the expectation of the "stable growth" policy. Under the macro background of "stable growth", the fundamentals of the real estate industry continue to stay at the bottom, and the marginal improvement policy continues. It is expected that there are still many favorable policies to be expected in the follow-up, and we will continue to be optimistic about the market performance of the real estate sector. Three types of enterprises are recommended: (1) property management companies with good fundamentals; (2) High quality real estate enterprises with financial stability and background of central enterprises / state-owned enterprises; (3) Real estate enterprises with high-quality holding properties or transformation enterprises, or effectively form a virtuous capital cycle of "development +".
Key investment points:
Last week's market review: favorable policies continued to be released. Last week, the real estate index of Shenwan industry rose by 1.64%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 1.06%, and the performance of the real estate sector was significantly stronger than the market. Since 2022, the real estate industry has increased by 12.58%, and the CSI 300 index has decreased by 14.36%, with significant relative gains.
Key policy highlights: (1) the national standing committee pointed out that we should study and take measures to support consumption and effective investment, improve the level of financial services for new citizens, optimize affordable housing financial services, ensure the construction financing of key projects, and promote the rapid growth of medium and long-term loans in the manufacturing industry. (2) Policies related to provident fund loans continued to be relaxed: Taizhou adjusted provident fund loans, and families with three children bought the first set of provident fund loans and applied for provident fund loans for the first time, with the maximum amount rising by 20%; Lishui adjusted the housing provident fund policy, the maximum loan limit was 700000 yuan, and the minimum down payment ratio of the first house was reduced to 20%, and the loan term of the provident fund was relaxed to "no more than 30 years"; (3) Chongqing banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau issued detailed rules on financial support for people's safe housing and happy life in the new city, including increasing support for affordable housing such as public rental housing, affordable rental housing and jointly owned property housing, as well as the reconstruction project of old urban communities; Reasonably determine the mortgage loan standard for the first house of new citizens who meet the purchase conditions, and improve the convenience of borrowing and repayment; Vigorously develop housing savings business and reduce the cost of house purchase credit with the characteristics of "deposit before loan" and "constant low interest".
Industry fundamentals: the decline in sales narrowed slightly, and the land market improved month on month. From March 28 to April 3, the sales of commercial houses in 30 large and medium-sized cities fell 46.89% year-on-year, including 44.32% in the first line, 44.05% in the second line and 53.66% in the third line; The supply and construction area of Baicheng residential land was 11.612 million square meters, with a four-week rolling year-on-year decrease of - 34.9%, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 49.04%, the transaction and construction area of Baicheng residential land decreased by 73.2% year-on-year, and the premium rate of Baicheng residential land was 1.5%.
Key company dynamics: several companies released the sales data of March 2022, with poor overall performance, most of which fell by more than 30% year-on-year Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) handle all the shares of Hefu China, focus more on the main business and withdraw from the primary and secondary housing agency and market consulting business; Rongchuang China transferred 50% equity of Guangzhou chuanghang real estate, and the transferee was a local state-owned enterprise in Guangzhou. It accelerated the asset disposal to alleviate the debt repayment pressure; In terms of financing, the scale of bond issuance decreased last week China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) issued RMB 9.399 billion of public REITs were oversubscribed.
Risk factors:
Exceed expectations
