Industry core view:
Last week, the Shenwan retail trade index fell 2.51%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.57 percentage points. According to the social zero data released by the Bureau of statistics, the social zero from January to February was + 6.7% compared with the same period in 2021. After deducting price factors, it was + 4.90% compared with the same period in 2021. We believe that in the short term, the rebound of the epidemic exceeds previous expectations, and the recovery of the consumer market is also facing uncertainty. Suggestions: ① mother and baby: since the implementation of the three child policy, governments across the country have issued a number of birth incentive measures. It is expected that the birth rate is expected to boost in the future with the implementation of more relevant supporting measures and policies. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of mother and baby racing track in advance; ② Cosmetics & Medical Beauty: under the beauty economy, there is a strong demand for cosmetics and medical beauty. Recently, a number of regulations related to cosmetics and medical beauty have been issued, and the industry is facing a reshuffle, which will benefit the leading companies of compliant cosmetics and medical beauty; ③ Gold and jewelry: the recent intensification of geopolitical friction has pushed the gold price higher, but the offline consumption scene is facing uncertainty due to the impact of the epidemic. In the medium and long term, the increasing penetration of daily consumption, gift giving, investment and other scenarios under the concept of “pleasing oneself” has driven the steady expansion of the industry scale. In addition, the epidemic has accelerated the industry integration in the past two years. Jewelry leading enterprises have actively seized the market by seizing channels, upgrading brands and developing new products, and are optimistic about gold jewelry leading enterprises.
Key investment points:
Market review: last week (April 4-april 10), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.94%, the Shenwan retail trade index fell 2.51%, and the retail trade index lost 1.57 percentage points to the Shanghai Composite Index, ranking 21st in the rise and fall of Shenwan 31 primary industry indexes. Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 10.66%, the commercial retail index has fallen by 14.11%, and the Shenwan commercial retail index has lost the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.45 percentage points, ranking 17th among the 31 primary sub industries of Shenwan.
Industry data: ① social zero data: from January to February 2022, China’s total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 6.70% compared with the same period in 2021. After deducting price factors, it actually increased by 4.90% compared with the same period in 2021. Among the sub categories, the retail sales of gold, silver, jewelry and cosmetics increased by + 19.50% and + 7.00% respectively year-on-year. ② Raw material price data: last week, gold rose $22.38 to $194742 / oz, and silver rose $0.15 to $24.77 / oz.
Important announcements of listed companies: the acquisition announcement of Yisi health Hangzhou Onechance Tech Corp(300792) repurchase progress China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) annual report summary Hangzhou Haoyue Personal Care Co.Ltd(605009) repurchase progress and reduction results Shanghai Aiyingshi Co.Ltd(603214) reduction progress.
Important events in the industry: ① the Ministry of industry and information technology said it would build a 10 billion beauty brand by 2025; ② The food and Drug Administration answered some questions about the filing of cosmetics.
Risk factors: the resurgence of the epidemic, the recovery of consumption is less than expected, and the industry competition intensifies.
