Trend overview:
This week (2022.3.282022.4.4), the SW media sector index rose 4.13%, the Shanghai stock index rose 2.19%, the Hang Seng technology index rose 8.92%, the Hang Seng China enterprise index rose 6.69%, the Hang Seng Index rose 5.13%, and the NASDAQ China technology stock index rose 8.77%.
Key event tracking:
Tencent video raises the member price again. How does the long video industry survive the winter? On April 9, Tencent video announced that the prices of Tencent video VIP and super film and television VIP will be adjusted at 0:00 on April 20. Among them, the prices of Tencent video VIP monthly card most commonly used by users and multiple packages of super film and television VIP remain unchanged. The price of VIP continuous monthly package is adjusted from 20 yuan to 25 yuan, the price of super film and television VIP continuous monthly package is adjusted from 30 yuan to 35 yuan, and the price of Tencent video VIP annual card is adjusted from 253 yuan to 258 yuan. Since iqiyi took the lead in raising the price at the end of 2020, Tencent video, mango TV and Migu video have followed up one after another. Among them, the price increase interval between iqiyi and Tencent video, which have been adjusted twice, is about a year. It can be seen that the long video platform has continued a relatively stable price increase rhythm. Behind the continuous price increase of the long video platform is the slowdown in the growth of the number of members. Since 2019, the number of iqiyi and Tencent video members has exceeded 100 million one after another. After that, the growth rate of members of both platforms has dropped or even negative growth: in Q4 of 2021, the number of Tencent video subscription members has increased by 1% to 124 million year-on-year, and the number of iqiyi subscription members has decreased by 5.6% to 105 million year-on-year. At the same time, with the slowdown of growth, the stock prices of iqiyi and Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) and other platforms have performed poorly, and the long video industry may have entered the winter. How does the long video platform survive the winter? We believe that long video platforms have also begun to “reduce costs and increase efficiency”, or as a feasible way out. On the one hand, the “quality improvement and reduction” has been put on the agenda: Taking film works as an example, the overall number of online films of “aiyouteng” decreased by 30% year-on-year in 2021, compared with a significant increase in the number of tens of millions of films. On the other hand, major video platforms have been looking for ways to diversify their revenue, such as Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) launching e-commerce app Xiaomang, iqiyi’s VR business, and the popular drama “movie game linkage”.
Risk tips: changes in regulatory policies, large fluctuations in macro-economy, lower than expected growth rate of the industry, repeated epidemics, etc.
