Semiconductor: Chinese mainland IC market share accounts for only 4% of the world, and the domestic substitution space is vast.
Silicon wafer manufacturers have achieved outstanding performance and actively expand production under the tide of core shortage. On April 6, 2022, global wafer, a large silicon wafer manufacturer, announced that the company’s revenue in March was NT $5.73 billion (about 1.27 billion yuan), an increase of 7.1% month on month and 0.6% year-on-year; In the first quarter, the total revenue reached NT $16.31 billion (about 3.615 billion yuan), an increase of 3.5% month on month and 10.1% year-on-year. Universal wafer expects to implement a capital expenditure plan with a total scale of NT $100 billion (about 22 billion yuan) in 2022, which is mainly used to expand the production capacity of 12 inch wafers and compound semiconductors; Among them, MEMC spa, the Italian subsidiary of universal wafer, will build a new 12 inch wafer production line.
Two points and one line closed management may have a partial impact on semiconductor production. On April 5, the Shanghai municipal government proposed that during the period of closure and control, enterprises that implement closed production should implement “two points and one line” closed management in the park (plant area) for employees’ life, work and transportation, and can produce and operate on the premise of doing well in various epidemic prevention measures. At present, many integrated circuit enterprises in Shanghai have maintained closed management in accordance with the requirements of epidemic prevention to ensure that their production is not affected by the epidemic. From the response of some integrated circuit manufacturers, the closed management may have a partial impact on semiconductor production.
In 2021, Chinese mainland accounted for only 4% of the global IC market share, and the United States accounted for 54%. According to IC Insights data, Chinese mainland accounted for only 4% of the global IC (total IDM and Fabless sales) share in 2021, and accounted for less than 1% of Chinese mainland sales in IDM sales, accounting for 9% of Fabless sales. The United States accounts for 54% of the global IC market, followed by South Korea, accounting for 22%; The Fabless sales in Taiwan China account for 9% of the global IC sales, while the share of Europe and Japan is 6%.
We believe that the black swan incident, such as blackouts, earthquakes, conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, and repeated epidemic cases in Taiwan, China, has been affecting the global semiconductor industry chain. The global “shortage of core” will continue until the end of 2022. At present, the upstream silicon wafer factory said that the phenomenon of price rise and long contract signing is frequent, and the silicon wafer production capacity is still in short supply. At the same time, the demand for superimposed automotive, IOT and other chips continues to grow, and semiconductor manufacturers may usher in a new round of price rise. At present, Chinese mainland semiconductor manufacturers gradually expand to vehicle and industrial control products, and have already achieved some domestic substitution in semiconductor subdivision application. At the same time, the global “core deficiency” has accelerated the introduction of products from domestic manufacturers, and the domestic substitution process is expected to further deepen. From a global perspective, Chinese mainland semiconductor sales share is still at a low level, so we firmly believe in the development of domestic semiconductor industry.
Risk tips
The downstream demand of semiconductor is lower than expected; Repeated outbreaks pose the risk of capacity disruption.
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