Event: on April 11, the passenger car Federation released the production and sales data of passenger cars in March: the wholesale sales volume was 1.814 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6% and a month on month increase of 23.6%; The retail sales volume was 1.579 million, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5% and a month on month increase of 25.6%; The production of 1.823 million passenger cars decreased by 0.3% year-on-year and increased by 22.0% month on month.
In March, the wholesale sales volume of passenger cars increased by 23.6% month on month, and the wholesale sales volume from January to March increased by 8.3% year-on-year. Affected by the epidemic, the wholesale sales volume of passenger cars in March was 1.814 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6% and a month on month increase of 23.6%. The demand for replenishment superimposed on the booming sales of new energy vehicles. From January to March, a total of 5.439 million vehicles were wholesale, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year, with excellent performance. In March, the retail sales volume was 1.579 million, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5% and a month on month increase of 25.6%, mainly due to the transaction of epidemic control terminals in Jilin, Shanghai and other places; From January to March, a total of 4.915 million vehicles were retailed, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%. In March, 1.823 million passenger cars were produced, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% and a month on month increase of 22.0%; From January to March, a total of 5.361 million vehicles were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 11.0%. Although the logistics has been delayed since late March, the chip supply has continued to improve and the performance of the production end has been strong since December 2021.
From January to March, the independent share reached 48%, with a year-on-year increase of 9.7pct. In March, 750000 self owned brands were retailed, with a year-on-year increase of 17% and a month on month increase of 37%; In November, the share was 48.5t, up from November to March; From January to March, the independent share reached 48%, with a year-on-year increase of 9.7pct. In March, 590000 mainstream joint venture brands were retailed, a year-on-year decrease of 30% and a month on month increase of 9%. Among them, the Japanese share was 20%, with a year-on-year decrease of 3PCT; Germany’s share was 18%, with a year-on-year decrease of 7pct; The share of American Department was 10%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.5pct; The share of legal system increased by 0.3pct. In terms of luxury cars, affected by the sealing and control of epidemic prevention in the main sales area, 230000 luxury cars were retailed in March, a year-on-year decrease of 14% and a month on month increase of 43%.
In March, new energy passenger vehicles increased by 43.6% month on month, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 25.1%. In March, 455000 new energy passenger vehicles were wholesale, with a year-on-year increase of 122.4% and a month on month increase of 43.6% (the month on month increase is close to the trend of March over the years). Among them, 371000 pure electric vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 116.8%; 84000 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, an increase of 151.3% year-on-year. In March, the penetration rate of wholesale new energy vehicles was 25.1%, up 14 PCT year-on-year. In March, the penetration rate of self owned brand new energy vehicles was 41%; The penetration rate of luxury vehicles and new energy vehicles is 34%; The penetration rate of mainstream joint venture brand new energy vehicles is only 3%. In terms of auto enterprises, the top 5 auto enterprises in terms of wholesale sales of new energy vehicles are Byd Company Limited(002594) 104000, Tesla China 66000, SAIC GM Wuling 51000, Chery 22000 and GAC EA 20000 respectively. In terms of retail, 445000 new energy passenger vehicles were sold in March, with a year-on-year increase of 137.6% and a month on month increase of 63.1% (better than the trend in March over the years). In March, the penetration rate of retail new energy vehicles was 28.2%, up 17.6pct year-on-year.
New energy vehicles are expected to maintain high growth, and traditional vehicles will usher in recovery after the epidemic eases. In terms of new energy vehicles, some models have started a new round of price increases, but at present, there are many orders that have not been increased. It is expected that from March to April, the orders will be mainly digested. Secondly, the cost performance advantage of new energy vehicles will be improved due to high oil prices. In addition, the users of medium and high-end new energy vehicles are mainly increased and exchanged, with strong consumption ability and rigid demand, We maintain the sales forecast of 5.65 million new energy passenger vehicles in 22 years (including 4.18 million pure electric vehicles and 1.47 million plug-in hybrid vehicles). In terms of traditional cars, the shortage of chips has been alleviated since the end of 2021. With the effective control of the follow-up epidemic, the demand for replenishment and the increase of terminal promotion, traditional passenger cars are expected to usher in a recovery.
Focus on recommending high-quality independent vehicle and parts enterprises. Among vehicle enterprises, high-quality industry leaders are recommended: Byd Company Limited(002594) (E platform 3.0 and DMI models are launched at the same time), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (accelerated expansion of new energy vehicles, upward bottom of fuel vehicles and significant performance flexibility contributed by the joint venture), Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (fuel, hybrid and pure electricity usher in a strong product cycle); Among the parts companies, Zhejiang Founder Motor Co.Ltd(002196) (expanding new forces + first-line autonomy + overseas high-quality customers), Jiangsu Changshu Automotive Trim Group Co.Ltd(603035) (benefiting from the large volume of new forces customers), Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) (benefiting from the high-end of the lamp industry), Mingxin Automotive Leather Co.Ltd(605068) (expanding new forces + large volume of new product delivery) are recommended.
Risk tip: there is a continuous shortage of chips, the progress of new products is less than expected, and the sales volume of new models is less than expected.
