Market review of last week (2022.4.4-2022.4.8): the Shanghai stock index rebounded in shock last week, closed up slightly, fell to the low point on the fourth day, and reached a low rebound on the fifth day. The Shenzhen index remained volatile last week, fell on the fourth day and rebounded slightly on the fifth day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.94% to close at 325185. The CSI 300 fell 1.06% last week to close at 423077. Last week, two of the sub sectors of social services and tourism retail rose from high to low: Education (+ 1.95%), tourism and scenic spots (+ 0.32%), hotel catering (- 4.26%), professional services (- 4.63%) and tourism retail (- 5.61%). Last week, 8 of Shenwan (2021) 31 Tier-1 industries rose, and the five largest gainers were architectural decoration, steel, building materials, petroleum and petrochemical and real estate. Among them, the social service sector fell 1.48%, ranking 17th among Shenwan’s 31 industries. The social service industry underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.42pcts. Hotels accelerate the expansion of exhibition stores and try out new business models; The popularity of small and long holidays has decreased greatly, and short distance travel has become the main market support; Policies have helped break the cultural and Tourism Bureau, and all walks of life have stepped up catering relief efforts.
Hotels have resumed the momentum of expanding stores and explored new management modes: enterprise survey data show that there are more than 2.5 million existing hotel related enterprises in China, and 395300 new related enterprises were added in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 4.28%. A number of hotel groups resumed the rhythm of high-speed exhibition stores and promoted the new management mode at the same time. The expansion speed of the hotel industry is picking up, and the demand side is gradually rising. The emergence of new business models such as light management, “Hotel +” and live broadcasting shows the resilience of the industry recovery.
The Qingming tourism market is cold, and local short-distance travel has become the backbone: the official wechat “voice of cultural tourism” of the Ministry of culture and tourism released data on the 5th, which showed that during the Qingming Festival holiday, the number of Chinese tourists decreased by 26.2% year-on-year; China’s tourism revenue decreased by 30.9% year-on-year, and “local tourism” and “peripheral tourism” led the list of holiday popularity. Under the prevention and control policy, the supply and demand of medium and long-term tourism products are weak, and local and surrounding tourism is still the main way to support residents’ travel demand. At present, the epidemic situation in China has not improved significantly, and the tourism industry may continue to be under pressure in the short term.
A number of policies are conducive to the relief of cultural tourism from difficulties, and local governments promote catering support plans: Recently, the Ministry of culture and tourism and other six departments jointly issued the opinions on promoting the revitalization of rural areas enabled by cultural industry, and planned the blueprint for the development and recovery of rural cultural tourism. The executive meeting of the State Council decided to implement the policy of phased deferred payment of old-age insurance premiums and increase the rescue efforts of catering and other special hardship industries. Meituan takeout announced that it would launch the “prosperity plan” to support all merchants. A series of relief policies and measures of the government and major enterprises are aimed at releasing the consumption power accumulated by the epidemic, which is conducive to the recovery of cultural tourism in May and lays the tone for the recovery of catering.
Investment suggestions:
The hotel industry continues to promote market recovery, leading enterprises accelerate the expansion of stores, and under the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, all groups actively develop new business models in order to break the situation; The number of trips and tourism income during the Qingming small and long holiday have decreased significantly due to the impact of the epidemic. Local short-distance travel has become the main consumer. The repeated epidemic has continued to put pressure on the industry, and the rhythm of residents’ holiday tourism consumption may still be restrained in the short term; The Ministry of culture and tourism launched the “opinions on promoting the revitalization of rural areas enabled by cultural industry” to create new momentum for the recovery of culture and tourism; All walks of life increased the intensity of support measures for the catering industry to stabilize the recovery logic of the industry. Continue to recommend tax-free leading enterprises China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ; Recommend Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Lijiang tourism, Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) , Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) , and other hotels, scenic spots and comprehensive tourism service targets in the logic of cultural tourism restoration; Recommend Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) to release the benefit target of ice and snow tourism demand and Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) Co.Ltd(600655) to focus on high-frequency consumption scenes and innovation target of life services.
Investment suggestions:
Covid-19 virus epidemic situation is repeated, the industry recovery is less than expected, and the implementation and implementation of policies are less than expected.
