Oil and gas prices fluctuated sharply, and the prices of potassium fertilizer and phosphorus fertilizer continued to rise; Semiconductors and new energy materials are highly concerned.
Industry trends:
Among the 101 chemical varieties tracked by the average price this week, the prices of 29 varieties rose, 41 varieties fell and 31 varieties remained stable. The top five varieties were sulfuric acid, nitric acid, NYMEX natural gas, carbon black and anhydrous hydrofluoric acid; The top five varieties of decline were DMF, naphtha, dichloromethane, WTI crude oil and methylcyclosiloxane.
WTI crude oil closed at US $97.90/barrel this week, with the closing price down 1.38% this week; Brent crude oil closed at US $102.40/barrel, closing down 1.91% this week. Affected by the second round of large-scale release of oil reserves planned by the International Energy Agency (IEA) this month, China’s epidemic situation is severe, the US crude oil inventory increases, and the hawkish minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, the crude oil price continues to fall. According to EIA data, as of April 1, the actual change of U.S. crude oil inventory in the week announced an increase of 2421000 barrels, with an expected decrease of 2056000 barrels. U.S. crude oil production continued to increase, reaching 11.8 million barrels / day, a new high in recent four months. In the future, it is difficult for Russia Ukraine negotiations to make progress. British Prime Minister Johnson’s visit to Kiev may exacerbate geopolitical risks; In addition, IEA member states need to hold reserves equivalent to 90 days of net imports. Based on this calculation, the United States has used up all available crude oil reserves, and oil and gas prices are expected to remain high and volatile.
The price of viscose staple fiber rose this week. According to Baichuan Yingfu data, the average market price of viscose staple fiber closed at 14000 yuan / ton, and the closing price rose by 2.94% this week. Affected by the epidemic, the transportation of goods from many places is blocked, and the production reduction of the industry is obvious. In terms of devices, the plant maintenance in Putian area and the epidemic control in Suqian area have reduced production respectively; Due to the difficulty of shipment due to the epidemic situation in Yancheng area, the unit has been completely shut down; The load of devices in Gaomi and Tangshan areas is reduced to varying degrees; This week (4.02-4.08), the operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 61.31%, with a decrease of 3.24pct. Since the beginning of March, the overall operating rate of viscose staple fiber industry has decreased by about 20%. In terms of demand, the price of downstream cotton yarn rose this week, and the trading volume is still relatively light. In terms of cost, viscose staple fiber was strongly supported by the cost end this week, the price of upstream dissolved pulp was relatively strong, and the prices of auxiliary materials sulfuric acid and liquid alkali increased sharply. In the future, due to the impact of the epidemic, viscose staple fiber may be limited by the supply side and driven by the cost side, which has continued to rise in the near future.
The price of potash fertilizer continued to rise this week. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the average market price of potassium chloride closed at 4400 yuan / ton, and the closing price increased by 1.38% this week. Affected by the epidemic, some northern ports have difficulties in shipping, the import volume of border trade ports is limited, and the market inventory is low. 62% Russian White potassium at Manzhouli Port is quoted at about 49005000 yuan / ton, and there is basically no available spot. In addition, the national reserve is in large quantities in batches every month, so the market circulation spot is in short supply. In terms of supply, the preliminary maintenance of Chinese manufacturers has been basically completed, only a small part has not been started, and the delivery volume in the market is limited; The number of imported ships is small, and the supplies from new sources in Canada have not yet arrived. In the international market, the prices of standard and granular potassium chloride rose sharply this week, and the market demand was strong. As of April 7, the quotation of granular potassium (Brazil CFR) had reached 1200 US dollars / ton. In the future, affected by the sanctions, Russia and Belarus have greatly reduced the export volume of potassium chloride, the downstream Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price is at a high level, the demand for potassium fertilizer is not reduced, the spot circulation in the international market is tight, and the price of potassium fertilizer may continue to rise in the medium and long term.
Investment suggestions:
This week’s view
Cyclical industries: crude oil runs at a high level and the price transmission continues. As of April 1, 2022, the average monthly price of 68% of the tracked products has increased month on month; The average monthly price of 24% of products fell month on month; In addition, the price of 8% products was flat. As of April 1, 2022, the monthly average price of WTI crude oil increased by 17.3% month on month, and the monthly average price of Brent crude oil increased by 18.8% month on month. Industry data: the PPI index of the chemical industry in February 2022 was 112.6, down 0.88% from January 2022. In terms of policy, the 14th five year plan for modern energy system was released. The plan pointed out that under the background of more secure and powerful energy security, the proportion of non fossil energy power generation will reach about 39% by 2025. The medium and long-term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035) was released, and the top-level design of hydrogen energy industry chain was gradually implemented. The raw materials fluctuated sharply and are optimistic about the leading companies in the integrated industry. Especially in the context of industrial upgrading and concentration improvement under the background of carbon neutrality, leading companies have strong anti risk ability and obvious advantages.
Growth companies: the rise of lithium carbonate slowed down. According to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, as of April 1, 2022, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate closed at 502500 yuan / ton, down about 0.1% from last week. The Ministry of industry and information technology and the State Administration of market supervision organized and held a symposium on the operation of lithium industry and the price rise of upstream materials of power batteries on March 16 and March 17, pointing out that upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain should strengthen the connection between supply and demand, work together to form a long-term and stable strategic cooperative relationship, and jointly guide the rational return of lithium salt price. In terms of semiconductor materials, according to the latest semi report data, the global semiconductor material market revenue was about US $64.3 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, reaching a new high. Among them, the revenue of China’s semiconductor material market was about US $11.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%.
Investment suggestion: the chemical industry chain is long, the raw materials fluctuate violently, the downstream price transmission lags behind, and the supply and demand of different products determine different transmission degrees. Some products and sub industries may face poor transmission and loss of profits. In the selection of sub industries, it focuses on integration and high view. From the perspective of sub industry prosperity, upstream petrochemical refining, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) related agrochemicals, infrastructure related chemicals, semiconductor materials and new energy materials are expected to maintain a high prosperity. Recommended shares: followinga series of recommended shares: followinga Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) \ , Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) , Sunresin New Materials Co.Ltd Xi’An(300487) , etc., pay attention to Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) , etc.
April golden shares: Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001)
Risk tips
1) large fluctuations in oil prices caused by changes in geopolitical factors; 2) The global epidemic situation has changed.
