The building materials sector rose sharply this week, outperforming the market. The price of cement fluctuated downward, the accumulated state of glass returned, the glass fiber roving still had toughness, and the price of electronic yarn fell again. The real estate chain is expected to be better under the broad policy of Panasonic, and the steady growth of infrastructure needs to be further strengthened.
The sector rose sharply and outperformed the market: this week (4.4-4.10), Shenwan building materials index closed at 7519.5 points, up 3.93%, outperforming Wande a. The industry’s average p / E ratio was 13.46 times, up 0.49 times from last week (3.28-4.3).
Cement: the price fluctuated downward, and the inventory pressure began to appear: the price decline areas were mainly concentrated in East China and Central South China, with a range of 20-30 yuan / ton; The price rise area is mainly Chongqing, with a range of 70-80 yuan / ton. After the Qingming Festival, the demand of China’s cement market has increased slightly. Due to the recurrence of the epidemic, the control in areas is still relatively strict, especially the poor road transportation, which hinders the recovery of downstream demand. At the same time, due to the shortage of downstream funds, the demand is tepid, and the cement price maintains a volatile adjustment trend. Clinker and P · O42 this week 5、P·S32. 5 powder prices were 421.8, 471.5 and 452.9 yuan / ton respectively, down 2.7, 4.8 and 2.6 yuan / ton respectively compared with last week. The mill operating rate and clinker storage ratio were 59.4% and 65.4% respectively, unchanged and increased by 4.2pct compared with last week. In the case of blocked demand, poor transportation and the end of off peak production, the inventory pressure is gradually rising.
Glass: shipment is limited, inventory accumulation: the average price of glass this week is 104.9 yuan / weight box, and the number of inventory days is 18.83 days, down 0.25 yuan / ton and up 0.3 days respectively compared with last week. The downstream replenishment in some regions has temporarily come to an end, and the inventory in most regions has increased during the week. Recently, uncertain factors in the market have heated up, shipments in some regions are limited, and the market is too wait-and-see. The demand is not improved enough, the overall market expectation is still weak, and the short-term adjustment space is temporarily limited under the thin profit. Pay attention to the later logistics and transaction changes.
Glass fiber: the alkali free yarn market is generally stable, and the electronic yarn is declining. This week, the market price of alkali free tank kiln roving continued a stable trend. There was little change in the market trading during the week. Most enterprises tended to be cautious in price adjustment, the inventory level was acceptable, and the trend was stable in the short term, and there was flexible room for the transaction of some individual products. The electronic yarn market fell again, the terminal demand was still relatively weak, and the prices of most enterprises decreased. The first mainstream price was 85009000 yuan / ton, falling month on month. The mainstream price of electronic cloth is maintained at 3.2-3.8 yuan / meter.
The performance of Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co.Ltd(600720) and Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) is expected to be reduced, and Q1 is expected to be the bottom of the industry. This week, Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) and Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co.Ltd(600720) released the performance forecast for the first quarter, reducing 88-86% and 87-99% respectively. The two companies are representative cement enterprises in the South and northwest respectively. It can be inferred that the decline in cement demand in the first quarter may affect a wide range. However, we believe that in the first quarter, most provinces stopped production at peak shifts, coal prices were high, demand was disturbed by the epidemic, and the pressure on the cement industry was significant. After the recovery of the epidemic, the steady growth is expected to be further strengthened, and infrastructure, as an important driving force, is expected to gradually promote the demand for cement.
Key recommendation
The cement industry recommends Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) , and it is suggested to pay attention to Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Ningxia Building Materials Group Co.Ltd(600449) ; Plastic pipe recommends ad shares and Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , and it is suggested to pay attention to China Liansu; Waterproof recommendation Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ; In the glass industry, the pharmaceutical glass faucet Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) , with flexible volume and price, and the flat glass faucet Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , with relatively low valuation at present, are the first to be promoted; Recommended by glass fiber industry China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) ; Recommended water reducing agent Lets Holdings Group Co.Ltd(002398) .
Main risks of rating
Risk tip: the demand for glass fiber is less than expected, and the pace of production capacity is accelerated; The fiscal rhythm is still slow, and the real estate easing and infrastructure recovery are less than expected; Industry policy risk; The cost of raw materials has risen.
