Investment summary:
Market situation: this week (4.2-4.8), the A-share real estate index (Shenwan real estate) increased by 1.64% (10.82% last week), and the A-share market (wandequan a) increased by - 1.74% (1.25% last week);
The H-share real estate index (kroney real estate leading index) rose 10.65% (3.49% last week), and the H-share market (Hang Seng Index) rose - 0.76% (2.97% last week). This week, the performance of A-share and H-share real estate sectors were stronger than the market.
Industry fundamentals:
Under the influence of the epidemic, sales fell further. From the data, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in 45 cities (4.1 ~ 4.7) was - 56.0% year-on-year and - 41.7% year-on-year last month; The transaction area of second-hand houses in 16 cities (4.1 ~ 4.7) was - 32.9% year-on-year and - 30.3% year-on-year last month.
The decontamination cycle continues to rise. From the data, the cycle of commercial housing in 15 cities (as of April 10) was 738 days, compared with 601 days in the same period last month.
Transactions in the land market are sluggish. According to the data, the cumulative land construction area of 100 large and medium-sized cities this year (as of April 10) was - 45.3% year-on-year, and - 42.6% year-on-year last week; The premium rate of land transaction in 100 large and medium-sized cities (4.4 ~ 4.10) this week was 0.0% and 1.0% last week; The total land transaction price of 100 large and medium-sized cities this year (as of April 10) was - 63.1% year-on-year, and - 61.6% year-on-year last week.
Financing remained sluggish. From the data, the issuance scale of domestic real estate bonds (4.1 ~ 4.10) has accumulated - 100% year-on-year, and the scale of last month was - 41.4% year-on-year; The issuance scale of overseas real estate bonds (4.1 ~ 4.10) was - 64.7% year-on-year, and the scale of last month was 9.4% year-on-year; The scale of trust financing (4.1 ~ 4.10) accumulated - 66.4% year-on-year, and the scale of last month was - 84.7% year-on-year.
Investment strategy:
Following the relaxation of loan restrictions in Zhengzhou and after-sales restrictions in Harbin, the purchase restrictions in Fuzhou, the purchase restrictions in Quzhou and Qinhuangdao, the purchase restrictions in Lanzhou and the down payment ratio of commercial loans were relaxed. Mortgage interest rates in Suzhou, Guangzhou, Hangzhou and other places decreased. The relaxation of purchase, loan and sale restrictions in more cities and the further decline of mortgage interest rates have gradually become a realistic choice. Under the repeated epidemic situation, the sales pressure is further highlighted. Under the impact of shrinking demand and weakening expectations, both supply and demand are facing great impacts. The policy goal of "stabilizing land prices, house prices and expectations" will face great challenges. It is urgent to further strengthen market support. The healthy and stable development of the market is not only the need to prevent and resolve risks, but also the basis for the transformation of the industry to a new development model.
We believe that the central government's attitude towards real estate regulation has changed significantly, and the policy tone has gradually shifted from correction at the end of last year to support. With the current clear policy tone and encouragement direction, the support of demand policy is expected to be more accurate and intensive, and the support of financial institutions to both ends of supply and demand is expected to be further strengthened. Although the high-frequency data shows that the current market sales are still continuing to decline, with the release of the policy, some cities have shown signs of recovery. Although the recent multi-point outbreak of the epidemic may affect the recovery of sales, the government's determination to boost the market has been relatively clear. With the gradual appearance of the policy effects at both ends of supply and demand, the recovery of industrial sales has been gradually approaching. In the short term, with the release of policies and the improvement of support expectations, the industry policy atmosphere is relatively friendly during this period, and there will be a big game in the market for the reduction of default risk of private enterprises. However, many low credit private enterprises with high risk still face great liquidity pressure, which may be difficult to support until the market warms up; Moreover, frequent negative news and almost lost land acquisition ability have also greatly damaged the market reputation and future development space of the enterprise. Therefore, we believe that in the long run, holding high credit real estate enterprises is a more stable strategy. Under the industry background of frequent thunderstorms in various enterprises, at the sales end, high credit real estate enterprises can win the trust of home buyers; On the supply side, high credit real estate enterprises continue to obtain financing support from financial institutions, and still have the ability to obtain land in the open market and acquire projects through mergers and acquisitions in the current market environment. Market reputation and business strength have laid the foundation for future development.
We believe that the advantages of financing will promote high credit real estate enterprises to gain advantages in the land and M & a market. The continuous land acquisition and promotion ability and high-quality credit endorsement are also expected to seize the opportunity when the demand recovers and further improve the market share. Recommended China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) . The support from the financing side, after meeting the steady central enterprises and real estate enterprises in the head, will gradually overflow to the stable private enterprises, and the market will gradually restore confidence in the stable private enterprises. It is suggested to continue to track the leaders of the stable private real estate enterprises, such as Longhu group and country garden.
Risk tip: the risk that the implementation of industrial policies is less than expected, the risk that profitability continues to decline, and the risk that sales are less than expected.
