[pigs: the sales volume of pig enterprises increased significantly year-on-year in March] the average price of pigs this week was 12.38 yuan / kg, up 0.39% week on week; The average wholesale price of pork was 18.21 yuan / kg, up 0.11% on a weekly basis; The price of compound feed for finishing pigs was 3.82 yuan / kg, up 0.53% on a weekly basis. This week, the pig sales data of pig enterprises in March were successively released. The sales volume was differentiated year-on-year and increased significantly month on month. Among them, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) 598.6, 144.8, 142.7, 96.7, 36.1, 33.6, 19.7, 170 and 131000 units were sold; Year on year change: + 111.3%, + 143.6%, + 67.1%, – 6.9%, + 59.1%, + 1.1%, + 171.4%, + 65.6%, – 11.6%; Except for Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , the month on month changes of each household were + 35.5%, + 46.0%, + 93.4%, + 18.1%, + 17.2%, + 192.8%, + 111.3%, + 6.7%. We expect that the production capacity of sows may remain relatively mild before May. Near the inflection point of the expected cycle of the market, the optimism of the industrial end has increased, resulting in a certain deviation between the pig price and the speed of production capacity removal. However, if the rebound in pig prices in the third quarter fails and a large-scale cash flow fracture occurs in small and medium-sized pig enterprises, the situation similar to the panic slaughter at the end of September last year and the accelerated deregulation of sow production capacity may still be deduced again, giving more room for imagination to the high point of the cycle. We believe that the layout of cyclical stocks should play down the timing and trade time for space. At present, the valuation of the sector still has a strong margin of safety. It is recommended to actively layout, but the two advantages of financial stability and cost leadership are the necessary prerequisites for the flexible realization of performance in this cycle. We pay attention to Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , COFCO Jiakang, Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) and Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) .
[poultry: pay attention to the spread of avian influenza in the United States] the average price of white feather broilers this week was 8.6 yuan / kg, up 1.1% on a weekly basis; The average price of broiler seedlings was 1.7 yuan / feather, up 15.5% on a weekly basis; Broiler formula feed was 3.9 yuan / kg, up 0.5% on a weekly basis. This month, the situation of avian influenza in the United States is becoming more and more serious. At present, the ancestral chicken sources of Chinese white feather broilers are introduced from the United States + introduced from New Zealand + self bred in China. In the whole year of 21, 1.25 million sets of ancestral chickens were introduced and renewed, including 4 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 00000 sets introduced from the United States, accounting for about 32% ~ 40%. According to the current policy, China is not allowed to import ancestral chickens from states where highly pathogenic avian influenza has occurred in the United States, but states that have not yet occurred can still import them normally. In February 2022, 133000 sets of Chinese ancestral broilers were introduced, with a month on month increase of + 27.9% and a year-on-year increase of + 6.4%. However, if the avian influenza epidemic in the United States worsens further, China may adopt import restriction policies similar to those in 2015 to stop the import of poultry meat from the United States, or have an impact on China’s introduction and supply. At that time, there may be a tight supply of poultry in China. It is suggested to pay attention to the relevant targets of the poultry industry chain. For broilers, it is suggested to pay attention to Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , and for laying hens, it is suggested to pay attention to Ningxia Xiaoming Agriculture & Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300967) .
[planting: Overseas grain stocks continued to be low] the spot price of corn this week was 2839.8 yuan / ton, up 0.09% on a weekly basis; The spot price of wheat was 3139.4 yuan / ton, down 2.11% on a weekly basis, and the average spot price of soybean meal was 4481.1 yuan / ton, down 5.5% on a weekly basis. USDA released the global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply and demand report in April this week. After excluding China and looking at the overseas data, due to the impact of the decline in output and the obstruction of grain transportation in Ukraine, the export volume of corn, wheat and soybeans was reduced across the board. At the same time, China’s consumption was increased across the board. Finally, the warehouse sales ratio of the three major crops was 10.5%, 21.2% and 22.3% respectively, compared with the previous month’s estimate of + 0.46pct, -0.61pct and -0.26pct. At present, it is the spring sowing season in the northern hemisphere, the logistics supply situation and weather conditions are complex and changeable, and the yield tolerance rate is low under the background of low global grain inventory. We expect the global grain supply rate to remain tight in the 21st / 22nd year, and the grain price may remain high. China’s overall grain supply is abundant, but structural contradictions still exist. With the gradual increase of dependence on grain imports and the focus on the transmission of import costs to China’s grain prices, it is suggested to give priority to high-quality planting enterprises ( Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) , Heilongjiang Agriculture Company Limited(600598) ), followed by high-quality seed enterprises ( Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) ) and transgenic technology companies ( Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ).
[animal protection] in March 2022, the chain ratio of porcine parvovirus vaccine was – 21.8%, year-on-year – 37.9%, CSFV vaccine was + 14.1%, year-on-year-43.2%, Pseudorabies Vaccine was + 25.7%, year-on-year-21.0%, foot-and-mouth vaccine was + 39.6%, year-on-year + 39.6%, pig ring vaccine was – 4.6%, year-on-year-21.5%. At present, the animal protection industry is at the bottom of the valuation. We should actively pay attention to the research and development progress of non plague and other new vaccines that are expected to drive the demand growth of the industry in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading companies with strong R & D strength, comprehensive product coverage and cutting-edge layout of the pet market ( Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) , Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) , Tianjin Ringpu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(300119) ).
Risk warning: the slaughter volume of pigs is lower than expected Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price fluctuates sharply; The outbreak exceeded expectations.
