Market review:
Last week (April 6-april 8, 2022), the Shenwan machinery equipment industry index rose by – 1.03%, and the CSI 300 index rose by – 1.06%. The machinery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.03pct. Eight sectors of Shenwan’s 31 primary industries rose, and the mechanical equipment industry ranked 11th, with the overall performance in the middle reaches.
Key data update:
1) semiconductor equipment: in February, the global semiconductor sales reached US $52.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 32.4%, realizing a year-on-year increase of more than 20% for 11 consecutive months. In February, the shipment of semiconductor equipment in Japan was 294.01 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of + 56.8% and a month on month decrease of – 4.02% Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) bonding machine obtains Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) batch order. 2) Construction machinery: in March, the sales volume of excavators was 37000 units, with a year-on-year increase of – 53.1%, including 27000 units in China, with a year-on-year increase of – 63.6%; 11000 sets were exported, with a year-on-year increase of + 73.5%. 3) Photovoltaic equipment: Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) Jiangsu Suqian 8gwtopcon project was launched and is planned to be put into operation in the second half of this year Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) hjt production line has a maximum conversion efficiency of 24.5%.
Key points of the industry:
Photovoltaic equipment: in the central layout, the integration of silicon materials is accelerated, and the industrialization of n-type batteries is accelerated. Central plans to invest 20.6 billion to build 120000 tons of high-purity polycrystalline silicon and semiconductor monocrystalline silicon materials in Inner Mongolia. Under the disturbance of silicon material price, the integration process of head enterprises has been significantly accelerated. Recently, the industrialization of n-type battery has been accelerated: 1) in terms of TOPCON, Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) Suqian 8gwtopcon project has been launched. According to the disclosure of Trina Solar in the early stage, the maximum conversion efficiency of 210mmi TOPCON independently developed by Trina Solar has reached 25.5%; 2) In terms of hjt, the diamond heterojunction battery production line has been put into operation for only three weeks, and its maximum microcrystalline conversion efficiency has exceeded 24.5%, with an average of 24.3%. Compared with hjt, TOPCON is expected to usher in large-scale production in 22 years, and the new production expansion of TOPCON is expected to exceed 50gw; Hjt has great cost reduction pressure. Localization of silver slurry, reduction of silver slurry consumption and reduction of silicon wafer thickness are the main cost reduction paths. In the past 22 years, n-type battery has ushered in large-scale mass production. It is suggested to pay attention to the increase in equipment demand brought by new technologies.
Machinery and equipment: the sales volume of excavator continued to decline in March, and the marginal demand for construction machinery improved under steady growth. In the case of the high base of Q1 last year, the sales volume of construction machinery in Q1 this year was – 39.2% year-on-year, including – 54.3% in China and + 88.6% abroad. The year-on-year decline of excavator sales in March continued to expand to – 53.1%. Under the interference of the epidemic in the first quarter and the rise of raw material costs, the purchasing managers’ indexes of manufacturing and non manufacturing industries fell to the contraction range. Considering the target of GDP growth of 5.5% this year, the demand for steady economic growth is prominent. In terms of downstream infrastructure projects, the central government requires the formation of practical workload as soon as possible, moderately advance infrastructure investment, and relax the regulation of real estate in some cities, resulting in the improvement of the marginal demand for construction machinery. Last year, the overall sales volume of construction machinery was high before and low after last year. It is expected that the sales volume of construction machinery in the second quarter is expected to improve marginally under the improvement of the epidemic situation, the recovery of policies and the demand for steady growth.
Semiconductor equipment: the downstream demand is strong, and the substitution of domestic equipment is expected to accelerate. According to the global data, the global semiconductor sales in February were US $52.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 32.4%, with a year-on-year increase of more than 20% for 11 consecutive months. In February, the shipment of semiconductor equipment in Japan was 294.01 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of + 56.8% and a month on month decrease of – 4.02% Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) recently obtained a batch order for Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) bonding machine, and the domestic substitution of semiconductor sealing and testing equipment is accelerated. At present, domestic semiconductor equipment has achieved technological breakthroughs in many subdivided fields. With the increase of downstream capital expenditure and domestic substitution, we are optimistic about the investment opportunities of semiconductor equipment with the continuous improvement of localization rate.
Lithium battery equipment: in February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to increase, and the market penetration reached 19.2%. China Automobile Association released the production and sales data of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobiles in mid February, with an output of 368000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 197.5% and a month on month increase of – 18.6%; The sales volume was 334000, with a year-on-year increase of + 184.3% and a month on month increase of – 22.6%. Power battery manufacturers actively shipped. In February, the output of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery was 31.8gwh, a year-on-year increase of + 236.2%; The installed capacity of power battery was 13.7gwh, a year-on-year increase of + 145.1%. GGII predicts that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market will exceed 5.5 million in the middle of 2022, and the market penetration rate will exceed 20%. With the acceleration of global electrification and the active expansion of battery enterprises, lithium battery equipment has fully benefited. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of lithium battery equipment brought by new technologies such as 4680.
Risk factors: the downstream demand is less than expected, the industry competition intensifies the risk, and the epidemic disturbance risk.
