Zhou Du’s core view:
E-commerce:
The epidemic rebounded in many places in China, and the online consumer demand of residents may continue to increase. Hungry, meituan and other takeout platforms launched the “community group meal” service; Ali and meituan fully deployed front-line personnel such as riders, couriers and warehouse pickers to rush to Shanghai; Jingdong home and pinduoduo provide consumers with “guaranteed supply package”. The epidemic prevention and control will be tightened, and the business forms such as real-time retail and community group purchase may benefit: the self operated mode of real-time retail e-commerce, such as daily excellent fresh food, Ding Dong shopping, box horse, meituan shopping, etc; O2o platform modes, such as Jingdong home, taoxianda, hungry, meituan flash purchase, etc; Community group purchase, such as meituan optimization, buying more vegetables, panning vegetables, etc. Suggestions: JD group and Alibaba.
Traditional retail:
Yonghui has completed the organization and transportation of 100000 rush aid materials in Fujian, and 600 more people will be dispatched to fight the epidemic and ensure supply in Shanghai in the next week; Shanghai HEMA has fully opened group purchase and distribution services, covering more than 5300 communities; The stock volume of livelihood materials and commodities in Shanghai Jingdong Qixian supermarket has increased to three times as much as usual; Wal Mart China supply chain fully guarantees the material supply of stores in Shanghai and East China. Recently, the epidemic situation in China has been repeated, local control has become increasingly strict, residents have hoarded goods, and the sales of fresh, frozen food, prefabricated vegetables and other categories may increase. Pay attention to the repair opportunities of head supermarkets with the advantage of fresh supply chain. It is suggested to pay attention to: Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) .
Gold jewelry:
Gold jewelry maintained a high outlook. From January to February 2022, the total zero growth rate of gold and silver jewelry society was 63.9 billion yuan, an increase of 19.5% year-on-year, with a growth rate of + 19.7 PCT month on month, far exceeding the zero growth rate of the whole society in the same period (6.7%). In the short term, the demand depends on the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control and the recovery of offline passenger flow; In the long run, the upgrading of the ancient process on the product side will stimulate terminal consumption, and the reform of changing the one-time price of gold to the weight of gold on the price side will promote the transparency of the pricing mechanism. With the head brand actively expanding the sinking market, the market concentration is expected to continue to improve. It is suggested to pay attention to: Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) .
Market review last week:
Last week (202204.04202204.08), the retail trade (CITIC) index fell 0.49%, less than the CSI 300 index by 0.57pct. Among the 30 first-class industries of CITIC, the commerce and retail sector ranks 10th. Among the sub industries in the retail sector, the top sub industries were supermarkets and convenience stores, comprehensive business formats and jewelry, clocks and watches, with an increase of 2.41%, 1.31% and 0.63% respectively. The quantile of PE in commercial retail industry is greater than that in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. At present, the PE (TTM) of commercial retail industry is 89.31, which is 96.83% from small to large since 2012; Shanghai and Shenzhen 300pe (TTM) is 12.39, with a quantile of 51.88%.
Industry dynamic tracking:
E-commerce: hungry? The “community E group” group meal service is the first in some communities in Shanghai; Meituan launched the “community group meal” service, which has covered more than 5000 Shanghai communities; Tiktok adjusts the assessment criteria for delivery and service in the affected areas. Jingdong and Jingdong home dual platforms will start 415 promotion synchronously for the first time; Hungry? The merchant’s rebate fund for the first phase of relief amounted to millions of yuan; Meituan has deployed nearly 1000 skilled sorting personnel to help Shanghai; JD logistics has delivered more than 100000 drugs and epidemic prevention materials to Shanghai; Jingdong provides 20 “guaranteed fresh package” at home, which will be delivered in groups the next day; Pinduoduo provides consumers with “48 hour guarantee package”; Riders and couriers returned to their posts, and enterprises such as hungry transferred 3000 front-line personnel. Traditional retail: Wal Mart China supply chain fully guarantees the material supply of stores in Shanghai and East China; Yonghui completed the organization and transportation of 100000 pieces of Fujian rush aid materials; The first HEMA fresh olai store opened in Guiyang, Guizhou; Hemalinli withdrew from Beijing, Xi’an, Chengdu and other cities; Shanghai HEMA has fully opened group purchase and distribution services, covering more than 5300 communities; Yonghui will send 600 more people to Shanghai in the coming week to fight the epidemic and ensure supply; Shanghai Jingdong Qixian Supermarket: the stock volume of people’s livelihood materials and commodities has increased to three times as much as usual. Gold jewelry: gold jewelry sold well and became the main force of buying gold after 00.
Investment suggestions:
Maintain the “overweight” rating of the commercial retail industry.
Investment main line 1: gold jewelry continues its recovery trend and high outlook. It is recommended to pay attention to Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) .
Investment mainline 2: common prosperity background, superimposed traffic peaking status quo, Internet enterprises are facing fierce competition, it is suggested to pay attention to Jingdong group, which has low regulatory risk, focuses on performance efficiency with retail as the king, and builds a moat with supply chain advantages.
Investment main line 3: in the traditional and new retail field, the business form of warehousing members is in full swing. It is suggested to pay attention to the positive layout of warehouse store business forms such as HEMA (Alibaba), Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) .
Risk tips:
Repeated outbreaks; Macroeconomic depression; Industry competition intensifies.
