Core view
Crude oil related information:
Crude oil and related inventory: on April 1, 2022, the commercial inventory of crude oil in the United States was 412.4 million barrels, an increase of 2.4 million barrels per week; Gasoline inventory was 236.8 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 2 million barrels; Distillate oil inventory was 114.3 million barrels, an increase of 800000 barrels per week; Propane inventory was 3437.5 million barrels, an increase of 666000 barrels per week. U.S. crude oil production and number of drilling rigs: on April 1, 2022, U.S. crude oil production was 11.8 million barrels per day, an increase of 100000 barrels per day per week and 900000 barrels per day compared with a year ago. On April 8, the number of drilling rigs in the United States was 689, with an increase of 16 in the week and 257 in the year; The number of drilling rigs in Canada is 111, with a weekly decrease of 13 and an annual increase of 53. Among them, there are 546 oil production rigs in the United States, with an increase of 13 in the week and 209 in the year.
Price change:
Among the 188 chemical products we monitored, the top three products with price increases this week were diammonium phosphate International (up 45.9%), potassium chloride International (up 17.5%) and liquid chlorine (up 14.6%); The top three declines were alkylated oil (down 12.1%), butane (down 10.2%) and DMF (down 7.5%).
Monthly, the top three products with price increases were formic acid (up 52.0%), diammonium phosphate International (up 45.9%) and sulfuric acid (up 41.9%); The top three declines were DMC (down 29.5%), 107 rubber (down 27.5%) and raw rubber (down 27.1%).
Price difference change:
The top three products with price difference increase this week are polyvinyl alcohol price difference (up 622.6%), MTP price difference (up 88.6%) and styrene price difference (up 43.4%); The top three declines were styrene (down 315.8%), butyl acrylate (down 159.1%) and oil head propylene (down 143.0%).
On a monthly basis, the top three products with price difference increases were the full price difference of oil head ethylene glycol (up 1011.7%), the full price difference of styrene (up 953.4%) and PTA (up 619.5%); The top three declines were diammonium phosphate (down 2422.8%), coal glycol price difference (down 1624.2%) and PX (down 504.2%).
Investment proposal and investment object
We believe that the development of coal chemical industry is expected to usher in a new period of opportunity under the general tone of China’s emphasis on independent security. At the same time, the sharp increase in the cost of crude oil and European energy has raised the price of chemical products, which is good for the profitability of China’s coal chemical industry. We suggest paying attention to China’s leading coal to olefin enterprise Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) ( Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , buy), China’s leading diversified coal chemical enterprise Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) ( Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , buy), China xinlianxin chemical fertilizer (01866, Unrated), etc.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues and inflation rises. It is suggested to pay attention to the agrochemical sector. From the current boom β Look, the trend of chemical fertilizer is upward due to the tight balance between supply and demand and the support of energy, resources and other attributes. It is recommended to choose the target with supporting resources and raw materials. Behind the high shortage of chemical fertilizer is the inflation of the global fossil energy system. It is recommended to pay attention to Sichuan Meifeng Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000731) ( Sichuan Meifeng Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000731) , not rated), Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) ( Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , overweight), Kunming Chuan Jin Nuo Chemical Co.Ltd(300505) ( Kunming Chuan Jin Nuo Chemical Co.Ltd(300505) , not rated), Qingdao East Steel Tower Stock Co.Ltd(002545) ( Qingdao East Steel Tower Stock Co.Ltd(002545) , not rated), Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) ( Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , not rated), etc. The pesticide sector suggests paying attention to the globally competitive pesticide enterprises Shandong Weifang Rainbow Chemical Co.Ltd(301035) ( Shandong Weifang Rainbow Chemical Co.Ltd(301035) , buy), and Hailir Pesticides And Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(603639) ( Hailir Pesticides And Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(603639) , buy), Dalian Bio-Chem Company Limited(603360) ( Dalian Bio-Chem Company Limited(603360) , not rated), Nantong Jiangshan Agrochemical & Chemicals Co.Ltd(600389) ( Nantong Jiangshan Agrochemical & Chemicals Co.Ltd(600389) , not rated), etc.
Risk tips
Industrial policy risk, fossil energy price change risk, geopolitics, repeated epidemic, etc.
