\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 338 Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) )
In 2021, the performance increased rapidly, and the growth of Q4 increased again month on month
The company released its annual report for 2021. The annual operating revenue was 1.375 billion yuan (+ 41.06%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 314 million yuan (+ 78.92%), and the non net profit deducted was 152 million yuan (+ 18.01%). Among them, 2021q4 achieved an operating revenue of 402 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 25.99% and a month on month increase of + 6.29%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 88 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 21.54% and a month on month increase of + 499.97%. With the continuous growth of the number of stores, the performance of single stores has recovered rapidly, and the group meal business has increased in a high proportion. The company’s performance has achieved rapid growth in 2021 and further accelerated its performance growth in Q4. We maintain that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 is expected to be 281 / 334 million yuan respectively, and the new net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 is expected to be 402 million yuan, corresponding to EPS of 1.13/1.35/1.62 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to PE of 26.0/21.9/18.2 times from 2022 to 2024, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Store expansion and single store improvement have achieved remarkable results, and the group meal business has achieved a high proportion of growth
In terms of store business, the company optimized the store expansion policy to attract franchisees. The opening of stores in East China, North China and South China was comprehensively accelerated, with a net increase of 215 / 101 / 56 franchise stores throughout the year, and the number of store expansion reached a new high in recent five years; At the same time, the company increased the income of franchise stores to 324000 yuan and that of Direct stores to 1306000 yuan through the unified management of store takeout business, the development of lunch and dinner series products, the promotion of the upgrading of third-generation stores and the price increase of some products. In terms of group meal business, in 2021, the company adjusted the “East China group meal business department” to “East China key customer business department”, and subdivided the customers into group meal customers, catering supply chain customers, chain convenience store customers, chain catering customers and fresh e-commerce platform customers. By polishing large orders and helping customers improve production services, the company realized a revenue of 215 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.2% and the proportion increased to 15.6%.
With the simultaneous development of endogenous and extension, the performance is expected to continue high growth in 2022
Looking forward to 2022, the company will realize the encryption of the East China market after the Nanjing plant is put into operation, provide sufficient capacity guarantee for the central China market after the Wuhan plant is completed, and continue to improve the capacity utilization of factories in North and South China. The nationwide layout of stores is expected to further accelerate; At the same time, the multiple resonance of takeout business development, research and development of new categories of lunch and dinner, and store upgrading will promote the continuous improvement of the company’s single store revenue; With the rapid penetration of group meal business and the extensive acquisition of brands such as “good gift guest” and “good morning”, the company is expected to continue its high growth.
Risk tip: store expansion is less than expected; The production capacity is lower than expected; The price of raw materials has risen sharply.
