\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 633 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) )
Event: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) released the sales data of March: a total of 101000 units were sold in March, a year-on-year decrease of 9% and a month on month increase of 43%.
In March, the sales volume increased by 43% month on month, and tanks, Euler and Great Wall guns performed well. In March, the company sold a total of 101000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 9% (narrowed compared with the year-on-year decrease of - 21% in February), an increase of 43% month on month, leading the whole industry in the same month on month performance (according to China Automobile Association, the whole industry is expected to be - 11% year-on-year and + 29.5% month on month in March). By brand, the sales of 300 tanks were 9000 units, with a year-on-year increase of + 78% and a month on month increase of + 38%. Sales of 1.289 million units on a year-on-year basis, + 1.289 million units on a year-on-year basis; Among them, 6374 good cats were sold, a month on month increase of + 57%. 18000 pickup trucks were sold, with a year-on-year increase of - 16% and a month on month increase of + 59%; Among them, 14500 Great Wall guns were sold, a month on month increase of + 70%. Haval sold 54000 units, with a year-on-year increase of - 19% and a month on month increase of + 30%; Among them, 9313, 4598 and 21633 sets of big dog / Beast / H6 were sold respectively, with a month on month ratio of + 25% / - 8% / + 10% respectively. Wey sold 5000 units, with a year-on-year increase of + 36% and a month on month increase of + 7%; Among them, 2576 lattes were sold, a month on month increase of + 8%.
Overseas sales increased by 31% year-on-year, and a number of global models are about to go to sea. In March, the company sold 11000 sets overseas, with a year-on-year increase of 31% and a month on month increase of 75%. Based on the four markets of Thailand, Brunei, Laos and Myanmar, the company will officially start the normal operation of Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Singapore this year. From March 21 to April 3, Haval H6 PHEV, Euler cat GT and tank 300 HEV concept vehicles landed at Thailand International Auto Show; Mocha will officially enter the German market in the first half of the year.
It is expected that the supply bottleneck will be released, and high-end and electrification are expected to accelerate. Affected by the epidemic in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Jilin and other places, the production capacity of many parts suppliers of the company has been limited since late March. The company is actively cooperating with parts suppliers to ensure supply. From May to June, the epidemic is expected to be gradually alleviated and the supply gap is expected to be repaired. In addition, the company's strong product cycle is open, and the brand is expected to continue to rise. The first batch of tank 500 vehicles is expected to be delivered in mid and late April. At present, the cumulative order of tank 500 is about 46000, and the new order in March is about 5000 (according to tank APP); Euler ballet cat, lightning cat and punk cat have successively appeared in the new car announcement of the Ministry of industry and information technology; Wey dream and MPV models will also be launched one after another. With the gradual improvement of chip shortage, high-end is expected to speed up.
Investment suggestion: maintain the "Buy-A" rating, and the six-month target price is 45.5 yuan / share. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will reach 10.15 billion yuan, 14.1 billion yuan and 18.94 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to the current market value, PE is 26.0, 18.7 and 13.9 times respectively, and the six-month target price is 45.5 yuan / share, corresponding to 41.4 times PE in 2022, maintaining the "Buy-A" rating.
Risk tip: continuous shortage of chips; The sales volume of new models is lower than expected; Overseas business expansion was less than expected.
