\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 345 Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) )
The improvement of income level supports the long-term growth of jewelry market, and Guochao Heyue has brought a new east wind. From the leading experience of the US market, consumption upgrading provides long-term support for the development of the jewelry market. Compared with the historical performance of the United States, China is still in the stage of consumption upgrading, and the improvement of per capita disposable income provides a long-term driving force for jewelry consumption. In addition, the innovation of ancient gold, 3D / 5G and other new gold processes conforms to the trend of jewelry consumption; The market share of 3D / 5G and gufajin increased from 24.85% in 2017 to 49% in 2020.
The company’s jewelry women’s bag business is driven by two wheels, and the performance recovers significantly after the epidemic Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) has two major businesses: jewelry and women’s bags. Under the epidemic, the company launched cloud stores in time, deepened channel reform, optimized the operation quality of single stores, and the overall business recovered well. By the first three quarters of 2021, the company had achieved an operating revenue of 3.449 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.87%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 285 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 253.09%.
The company’s core highlights: 1) self operated store structure adjustment and channel management ability improvement drive the construction of franchise channels. From 2018 / 2019 / 2020 / 2021h1, after the construction of the company’s digital system and the promotion of the provincial representative model, Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) respectively added 96 / 107 / 97 / 34 franchise stores. 2) The company focuses on K-gold fashion jewelry, supplemented by gold jewelry, adheres to independent research and development, and continues to benefit from the aesthetic awakening consumption trend. 3) Deeply anchor young customers. In the first half of 2021, the company has 10 million Omni channel members, of which post-80s users account for more than 80%. 4) Successful transformation of women’s bag business. Fion adheres to the strategy of fashion over luxury, runs through the channels of shopping centers, and continues to develop its online business.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company to reach 351 / 411 / 490 million yuan respectively from 21 to 23 years, corresponding to EPS of 0.40/0.46/0.55 yuan / share respectively, and the latest share price corresponding to PE of 11.9/10.2/8.5 respectively. We give the company 14 times PE valuation in 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 6.44 yuan, and give a “buy” rating for the first time.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation inhibits offline consumption; Channel development is less than expected; Intensified competition
