\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 338 Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) )
Event: Bobby released the 2021 annual report. The total operating income of the whole year was 1.375 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.06%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 314 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.92%, and the non net profit deducted was 152 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.01%. Q4 achieved a total operating income of 402 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 25.99%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 88 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21.54%, and a deduction of non net profit of 51 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.50%. It is proposed to pay a cash dividend of 2.6 yuan (including tax) for 10 shares.
Store + group meal resonance, successfully concluded in 2021. 1) Stores: by the end of 2021, the company had 3480 stores, including 19 directly operated and 3461 franchised stores respectively (716 new stores, 344 closed stores, and a net increase of 372). East China / South China / North China franchise stores were 2950 / 370 / 141 respectively, with a net increase of 215 / 101 / 56. Franchise stores achieved an annual revenue of 1.121 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 37.93%; The revenue of a single store was 323900 yuan, which was close to the level of the same period in 2018, mainly due to the upgrading of stores, the contribution of takeout business, and the transmission of new product launch and price increase. 2) Group meal: the income of group meal in 2021 was 215 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 61.3%, accounting for 15.61%. After upgrading the group meal business into a key customer business department in 2021, the group meal business will continue to make efforts by optimizing the organizational structure internally and improving the service capacity externally. 3) Profit: with the decline of pig price and the climbing of production capacity, the gross profit margin of 21q4 was increased to 28.1%, and the gross sales difference was increased from 19.52% to 22.24%, which was significantly improved month on month.
Extension + endogenous force, high growth in 2022 can be expected. 1) Extension: in 2021, the company acquired the brands of “Haolike” and “zaoyidian”, which is conducive to improving the company’s market share in Central China. The project was completed in March 2022 and is expected to be consolidated in April; 2) Endogenous: at the beginning of 2022, the company arranged the South China Investment Promotion Conference in Jianli, Hubei Province, superimposing the leading market position in East China and the extension expansion in Central China, accelerating the process of national layout. In terms of single store, with the deepening of online business expansion, the improvement of lunch and dinner categories, the upgrading of stores and the empowerment of digital development, it is expected that there is still room for improvement in single store revenue. In terms of group meal, it is still in the stage of rapid penetration. With the adjustment of organizational structure, the increase of resource preference and the release of new production capacity in Shanghai and Nanjing, the group meal business is expected to continue high growth. 3) Cost: considering that it is difficult to see the inflection point of pig price this year, the dividend of low-cost pork is expected to continue, and the gross profit margin is supported. In the whole year, it is expected to achieve a bumper harvest of income and profit.
Profit forecast: considering the acceleration of extension endogenous exhibition stores, group meal relay under the influence of the epidemic and rigid demand under weak demand, we expect the revenue of RMB 1.74/21.5/2.69 billion in 2022 / 23 / 24 and the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 270 / 32 / 400 million, a year-on-year increase of – 14.9% / 19.4% / 25.8%, and the current market value corresponds to pe27.9% 4 / 22.9 / 18.2x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials fluctuates, the opening progress is less than expected, and food safety problems
