\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 556 Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) )
Event: on April 7, the company issued an announcement and signed the investment agreement for Jianhu (phase II) 10GW photovoltaic large silicon wafer project. With an investment of 700 million yuan, the project is expected to be put into operation in two stages in 2023 and 2024, which is not expected to have a significant impact on the company's performance in 2022.
Comments: slice OEM logic has gradually been proved!
1) essence of chip OEM: the benefit of silicon wafer output lies in the cooperation between cutting equipment (or from linear speed and yield, which is reflected in the number of knives per day) and cutting consumables (the refinement degree of bus, which is reflected in the actual chip yield).
2) economy of chip OEM: it comes from professional division of labor and makes profit by charging OEM fee + selling multi cut silicon wafers.
3) capacity planning: in 2021, the company plans to have a chip foundry capacity of 35gw. Due to the strong demand for chip foundry, it announced on April 7 that the lake (phase II) will be expanded by 10GW silicon chips, with a total chip foundry capacity of 45gw. 45gw chip OEM capacity splitting: 1) Leshan large silicon wafer demonstration project: 5GW, supporting Tongwei and huantaimeike, and the expected production time is December 2021;
2) Leshan phase I: 6Gw, supporting Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) , expected to reach production in 2022q2;
3) Leshan phase II: 14gw, expected to reach production in 2023;
4) Jianhu phase I: 5GW, expected to reach production in September 2022;
5) Jianhu phase II: 5 + 10GW = 15gw, which is expected to be put into operation in two stages in 2023 and 2024.
Calculation of production rhythm:
By sorting out the production of chip OEM capacity in each base of the company, the company's chip OEM capacity is expected to be 21 (16 + 5), 40 and 45 (40 + 5) GW from 2022 to 2024 respectively. We expect that the actual production capacity from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 12, 25 and 40gw.
Profit forecast: we expect the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2023 to be RMB 344 / 577 million respectively, and the corresponding PE to be 30 / 18x respectively. It is recommended to focus on and maintain the buy rating!
Risk tip: the slicing equipment industry is highly competitive; The competition in the chip OEM industry intensifies; The raised investment project has the risk of customer dependence; The benefit does not meet the expectation; Downside risk of product sales price; The implementation of Jianhu (phase II) project may have the risk of postponement, change, suspension or termination
