\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 636 Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) )
Core view
Float glass drives high profit growth. The company released its annual report for 21 years, realizing revenue / net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 14.57/4.23 billion, yoy + 51.1% / 133.4%, benefiting from the high boom of float glass industry in the first three quarters and achieving high growth in performance. In the fourth quarter alone, the company realized revenue / net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 3.81/580 billion, yoy + 23.3% / - 3.8%. The decline in real estate prices in the middle of Q4 was mainly due to the weak demand of real estate developers in Q4. Looking forward to 22 years, we believe that the industry supply will still increase slightly, the resilience of real estate completion still has a strong guarantee for the demand in the first three quarters of 22 years, the overall supply and demand is still in a relatively balanced state, and the price fluctuation is more caused by the mismatch of supply and demand in a certain period of time.
With excellent cost control ability, the profit center of energy-saving glass will rise. From the perspective of business structure, the original glass is still the main source of performance, with an annual sales volume of 119 million heavy boxes in the 21st century, which is basically the same as that of 117 / 114 million heavy boxes in the 20th year. We predict that the price / cost / gross profit / net profit per heavy container in 21 years will be 104.4/50.6/53.9/35.6 yuan respectively, an increase of 30.4/4.1/26.3/20 yuan respectively compared with 20 years. In addition to the rise of commodity prices, the company's cost control ability is very excellent. The direct material cost per heavy box of float raw film increased by only 4.2 yuan in 21 years. Considering only the average price of heavy alkali, it has increased by 837 yuan / ton in 21 years. Based on the consumption of 0.2 tons of soda ash per ton of glass, the cost of each heavy box of glass has increased by 8.4 yuan. Energy saving glass is currently the second largest source of revenue, with a revenue of 2.03 billion yuan, yoy + 83%. A considerable part of the growth comes from the increase in sales (YoY + 49%). As Changxing / Tianjin energy conservation base is in the production capacity climbing stage, it has caused certain losses and affected the net interest rate of the sector. In the future, with all six energy-saving bases entering the mature period of operation and referring to the higher net interest rate of energy-saving leaders, the profit center is expected to continue to improve.
The photovoltaic glass sector continues to increase investment. On the one hand, two ultra white floating normals with a total daily melting capacity of 1500t / D in Zhangzhou were transferred back to the production of building glass, and on the other hand, a new photovoltaic calendering production line was announced. It is estimated that 1200 / 4800 / 6000t / D new capacity will be put into the market in 22 / 23 / 24 years. Looking forward to the photovoltaic glass market in 22 years, there is a great supply pressure. According to Longzhong information, the current production capacity is 51580t / D, 9000t / D has been put into operation since the beginning of the year, and the potential supply increment in the remaining 22 years is 49050t / d. Photovoltaic glass leading enterprises have large production expansion plans, and the pricing strategy is more based on the digestion of new production capacity. At the same time, the production cost of leading enterprises is the lowest. We predict that the price elasticity of photovoltaic glass in 22 years is small, and the production cost will be more competitive in the future. Thanks to the leading position of float, the company has a good layout in ultra white sand reserve / soda ash, and the cost control ability of raw materials will be guaranteed.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
It is predicted that the EPS of 22-24 years will be 1.19/1.61/2.35 yuan (the original value of 22 / 23 years is 1.38/1.71 yuan), which mainly reduces the income and profit of photovoltaic glass. Referring to the average valuation level of comparable companies, it is approved to give 16xpe for 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 19.04 yuan, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the completion of the real estate fell faster than expected, and the production progress of photovoltaic glass was lower than the progress.
