\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 338 Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) )
Event: the company released the performance forecast of 2021 annual report, which was in line with the previous forecast. In 21 years, the company achieved a revenue of 1.375 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 41%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 314 million, a year-on-year increase of + 79%, an investment income of Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) confirmed by indirect shareholding is expected to be 147 million, and a non attributable profit of 152 million yuan is deducted, a year-on-year increase of + 18%. Among them, single Q4 achieved a revenue of 402 million, a year-on-year increase of + 26%, a profit attributable to the parent company of 88 million, a year-on-year increase of + 21.5%, and a deduction of non attributable profit of 51 million, a year-on-year increase of + 17.5%.
The expansion in different places has been accelerated, the single store has been improved, and the group meal has continued to develop. The revenue of 21q1-q4 was 250 million yuan, 340 million yuan, 380 million yuan and 400 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of + 132%, + 40%, + 25% and + 26% respectively. In terms of store business and store opening, the company has increased relevant policies for store expansion, the number of store expansion has reached a new high in recent five years, and the expansion in different places in South and North China has accelerated. By the end of 2021, the number of franchise stores in East China, South China and North China of the company was 315 / 481 / 240 respectively, and the number of new stores opened in the whole year was 215 / 101 / 56 respectively; There were 19 Direct stores, with a net increase of 2 in the whole year. In terms of single store revenue, the average revenue of the company's franchise stores was + 23% year-on-year; The average revenue of Direct stores was + 80% year-on-year. The measures taken by the company to promote the same store have achieved initial results, such as takeout business (coverage increased to 50-60%), upgrading of third-generation stores (coverage increased to 80%), launch of new dinner products, etc. In terms of group meal business, the revenue continued to increase, with a year-on-year increase of + 61.21%. The company adjusted "East China group meal business department" to "East China key customer business department", subdivided market regions and sales channels, subdivided customers into group meal customers, catering supply chain customers, chain convenience store customers, chain catering customers and fresh e-commerce platform customers, and established corresponding sales teams for development.
Cost decline + product price increase, and profitability is restored. The gross profit margin of 21q4 company is 28.14%, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.4pct. It is expected that: (1) the pork price has declined greatly since Q3; (2) In November, the price of marginal products such as steamed bread was raised; (3) Q4 stores and group meals grew rapidly, increasing capacity utilization. The sales expense rate of 21q4 company was 5.9%, increased by 8.12pct at the same time, and increased by 0.82pct month on month compared with Q3. It is expected that there is no policy reduction for the annual sales expense bonus and social security expenditure accrued in Q4, resulting in the increase of employee salary; The management expense rate of the company increased by 0.32pct to 6.44% at the same time. It is expected that it is mainly due to the increase of management personnel, salary promotion and no policy relief of social security expenditure.
The revenue is expected to maintain high growth in 22 years, and the performance is more flexible. Revenue side: in terms of store opening, the company has arranged the South China investment promotion meeting in Jianli, Hubei in the first 22 years. The opening of stores in South China is expected to continue the acceleration momentum. It is expected that more than 700 stores in Central China will be consolidated from April. At the same time, the company will continue to empower stores with various measures, such as takeout business and lunch and dinner products. It is expected that the revenue of single stores will still improve. In terms of group meal, the group meal division of the company subdivides five sales channels and increases the investment in human resources. Profit side: considering the continuous release of low-cost pork dividends in 21 years, the embodiment of price increase and the rational investment of prepackaged products, the profit margin is expected to increase steadily.
Investment suggestion: maintain the "overweight" rating. Considering the strong growth of consolidation and group meals in Central China stores, the downward trend of superimposed cost side and the rational investment of marketing expenses, we expect the company to have a double harvest in revenue and profit in 2022. We raise the profit forecast. We expect the company's revenue in 22-24 years to be 1.99724613028 billion yuan respectively (compared with 1.8852262 billion yuan in the previous 22 / 23 years), and the net profit to be 2.69/3.37/415 billion yuan respectively (excluding the income of indirect shareholding Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) ), EPS is 1.08/1.42/1.74 yuan respectively (1.08/1.32 yuan in the previous 22 / 23 years), and the corresponding current PE is 27 / 21 / 17x respectively. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: channel expansion is not as expected; Price fluctuation of raw materials; Food safety incidents.
