\u3000\u30 China Baoan Group Co.Ltd(000009) 77 Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co.Ltd(000977) )
Performance review
On the evening of April 8, the company released its annual report, with annual revenue of 67.048 billion yuan, Y / y6.6 billion yuan 36%, a year-on-year increase of 29.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 2.003 billion yuan, Y / y36.5% 57%, a year-on-year increase of 115.61%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 1.797 billion, Y / y27.5% 56%。 Overall, it is in line with expectations.
Business analysis
Gross profit and cash flow from operating activities are under pressure in the short term, and the expense rate continues to be optimized. During the reporting period, the revenue of servers and components was 64.342 billion yuan, Y / y4.4 billion yuan 02%, gross profit margin 11.13%, Y / y-0.27pp. The net cash flow from operating activities was -8.289 billion yuan, Y / y-455.73%. We judge that due to the shortage of global raw material supply, the company increased its stock, resulting in a significant increase in inventory and an increase in corresponding cash outflow. Inventories accounted for 48.48% of total assets at the end of the reporting period, an increase of 19.97pp over the beginning of the year. Sales expenses, administrative expenses and financial expenses decreased significantly, Y / y-21.64%, -11.90%, -145.43%. The R & D investment is 2.832 billion yuan, Y / y1.1 billion yuan 79%, accounting for 4.22% of revenue, Y / y0.5% 2PP。
Continuously innovate product technology, release a variety of high-performance products, full stack layout and liquid cooling technology. During the reporting period, the company upgraded and released a number of AI servers for a variety of application scenarios, including AI server nf5498a5, global performance leading AI server nf5488m6 and liquid cooling AI server nf5488la5. The newly released M6 server has broken 165 spec world performance test records and won many championships. Tianchi, the largest liquid cooling R & D and production base in Asia, was built and put into use, realizing the mass delivery of the whole cold sector liquid cooling cabinet for the first time in the industry. Relying on the full stack technology development capability, the company leads cutting-edge applications and is in a global leading position in the fields of cloud, AI, open computing and edge computing.
Continue to promote the smart computing strategy and firmly grasp the opportunities of smart new infrastructure industry. According to IDC data, China's server market cagr12 in 20202025 5%, reaching US $41 billion in 2025. As a leading server manufacturer in China, the market share of the company continues to maintain the forefront, and the products such as servers and storage rank first in the industry. According to synergy21q4 data, the company's servers ranked first in the global public cloud infrastructure computing market share for 11 consecutive quarters. Servers account for about 60% of IT hardware investment, and under the background of "double carbon", the company's full stack layout of liquid cooling technology will benefit from industrial opportunities such as new infrastructure. It is estimated that the revenue in the next three years will be cagr10% +, and the net profit margin will increase to 3%.
Profit adjustment and investment suggestions
We continued to be optimistic about the company's prospects, lowered the revenue growth rate, lowered the gross profit margin forecast by 1.7pp, and lowered the expense rate by 2PP. It is estimated that the revenue in 22-24 years will be 76.544 (- 12.8%) / 86.672 (- 16%) / 96.995 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 23.24 (- 13.9%) / 26.55 (- 21%) / 3.012 billion yuan, corresponding to the previous share price pe1.66 billion yuan 39 / 14.34/12.65x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Server demand is less than expected; Intensified market competition; Supply chain risk caused by Sino US trade friction.
