\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 436 Shenzhen Fastprint Circuit Tech Co.Ltd(002436) )
Event overview
On April 8, the company released the performance express of 2021. In 2021, the operating revenue was 5.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.9%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 620 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 590 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 102.5%. It is estimated that the company’s 21q4 achieved a revenue of 1.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.0%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 130 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 105.7%, and a corresponding deduction of non attributable net profit of 120 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.6%. The company released the performance forecast of Q1 in 2022. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter of 2022 will be 180210 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 77.5% – 107.1%. Deduct non net profit of RMB 115125 million, with a year-on-year increase of 5% – 14.1%.
The annual performance was in line with expectations, and the growth rate of packaging substrate business was bright
The company’s high performance growth in 2021 mainly benefited from: 1) the global semiconductor boom continued to be high, the company’s packaging substrate business grew rapidly, with a revenue growth of about 98.3%, with a bright growth rate. At present, it is in the stage of accelerating production expansion, and its revenue is expected to grow further in the future; 2) The global epidemic has eased and the economy has recovered. The PCB industry is booming in both production and sales. The production expansion of subsidiaries Guangzhou XINGSEN express and Yixing Silicon Valley has made steady progress, and the revenue and profit of PCB business have increased to a certain extent. 3) The company’s lean production has achieved initial results, the operating efficiency has been further improved, the gross profit margin has been further improved, and the cost rate has decreased, resulting in further enhancement of profitability. The company deducted 590 million yuan of non parent net profit, an increase of 102.5% year-on-year.
In the first quarter, the revenue increased by 19%, and the growth rate of net profit deducted from non parent company slowed down
1) in the first quarter, benefiting from the release of production capacity of Yixing Silicon Valley, the steady improvement of production capacity of Guangzhou XINGSEN express, the full orders of packaging substrate business and the steady growth of finline, the overall revenue scale of the company increased by about 19%. 2) In the first quarter, the company transferred part of the equity of Ruijun semiconductor, resulting in an investment income of about 61 million, resulting in a high increase in the net profit attributable to the parent company; The net profit of the company exceeded 20 million yuan due to the equity incentive expense of 15.75 million yuan in the first quarter, the loss of the subsidiary Xingke semiconductor packaging substrate that has not been officially put into operation, and the increased employee cost of preparing to build FCBGA packaging substrate business, resulting in a slowdown in the growth of net profit after deduction in the first quarter.
The packaging substrate business can be expected for a long time, leading the future growth of the company
The company actively expands the packaging substrate business and opens up the future growth space of the company: 1) in the short term, the large fund project will be put into operation soon, and the capacity of packaging carrier business will be further improved. At present, the company’s BT carrier capacity is 20000 Ping / month. The large fund project plans to increase 30000 Ping / month carrier capacity and 15000 Ping / month class carrier capacity. The first 15000 square meter / month BT carrier production line is expected to be put into operation in the first half of 2022, Further expand the company’s packaging substrate capacity. 2) in the medium to long term, FCBGA packaging substrate is basically in the market situation monopolized by overseas manufacturers. With the rapid growth of demand for intelligent driving, 5G, big data and AI, FCBGA packaging substrate is in a state of short supply capacity. Chinese mainland FCBGA packaging substrate area has FCBGA production capacity except for Shenzhen Fastprint Circuit Tech Co.Ltd(002436) , and the company actively layout FCBGA business, the first phase will reach production in 2025. The second phase is planned to reach the production capacity in December 2027. It is expected that after the two phases are completed, the income will increase by 5.6 billion yuan and the net profit will increase by 1.3 billion yuan.
Investment advice
According to the company’s performance forecast, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was adjusted to 621 million yuan (previously 602 million yuan). Considering the fluctuation of the external environment, we lowered the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-23 years to 700 / 900 million yuan (previously 753 / 954 million yuan). According to the closing price of 2022 / 4 / 8, PE was 23 / 20 / 16 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The new production capacity is less than expected, the downstream demand is less than expected, the risk of not raising enough project construction funds in time, and the risk of fluctuations in the peripheral environment.
