\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 658 Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) )
Core view
Postal and banking cooperation to create a solid retail customer base Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) relying on the “self support + agency” mode, the number of outlets ranking first in the industry is arranged, and the depth of outlets is sinking and the layout is balanced. The channel advantage has created the leading liability side capacity of postal savings. By the end of the 21st century, the company’s liability side deposits accounted for 96.3%, and the average of the other five major banks in the same period was 80.4%. In terms of cost rate, the company’s 21-year deposit cost rate is 1.63%, which is better than the average level of listed banks in the same period (2.09%). Although the real deposit cost rate of postal savings will rise after reducing the agency savings fee, considering that deposits are still the ballast of bank operation, we think we should pay more attention to the solid customer base of the company reflected behind deposits, Good customer relations and channel advantages are expected to provide guarantee for the company’s future asset business.
The asset side has great development potential, and the high growth is expected to continue. The postal savings credit business started relatively late. In recent years, it has made some efforts in the credit business and gradually showed its development potential. The average annual compound growth rate of the company’s credit business reached 16.5% from 16 to 21, much higher than that of the five major banks (average 10.1%). At present, the loan deposit ratio of the company is still significantly lower than that of the five major banks, and there is a broad space for development in the future. According to the static calculation based on the data of 21 years, if the loan deposit ratio of the company increases by 2pct, the corresponding net interest margin level in 21 years is expected to increase by 2bps. In addition, the company’s advanced capital management method has been steadily promoted. Referring to the data of six banks that have implemented the advanced method, it is statically estimated that if the advanced method is successfully implemented, it is expected to Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) save the core Tier-1 capital adequacy ratio of 1.51pct, and more efficient capital management will provide capital support for the company’s asset side expansion.
The burden of stock is light, and the quality of assets is stable and solid. Corporate credit business started late, the historical burden of stock was light, and the non-performing rate remained below 1%, which was the best level among large banks. From the dynamic point of view, the company’s forward-looking indicators are also excellent, and the potential adverse generation pressure is small. In addition, the postal savings bank has the most abundant provision coverage among large banks, which makes the company’s anti risk ability outstanding. The space for provision to feed back profits in the future is worth looking forward to. Based on the static calculation of the data at the end of the 21st year, assuming that the company’s provision coverage decreases by 5pct, it is expected to increase the profit of the current year by 3.2% and increase roe by 0.5% 39pct。
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We predict that the EPS of Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) 22 / 23 will be 0.97/1.12 yuan and the predicted value of BVPs will be 7.61/8.43 yuan. We use the relative valuation method to evaluate the company. The average adjusted value of Pb is 0.66 times that of the comparable company in 22 years. Considering the advantages of the company’s liability side, the potential of the asset side and solid asset quality, we give the company a 35% valuation premium, corresponding to 0.89 times of Pb in 2022 and a target price of 6.77 yuan. We give a buy rating for the first time.
Risk tips
The economic downturn exceeded expectations; The liquidity risk of real estate enterprises continues to spread; The strength of financial supervision increased more than expected; Changes in assumptions affect the calculation results.
